37 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Aug 20 · 17 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 54 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.5%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -158
CLV vs close
−0.54 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.54 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.9to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
0.9–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
+3.66 pts
+0.64uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.66 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
40.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.32%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.42 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
+1.02uSettled at +104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -168
CLV vs close
+3.24 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.24 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.51%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.90 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.72hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.72
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+0.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.91 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
56.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.6%.Risk: an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+1.15 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.15 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
36.8%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.82%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
82¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+4.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at +185 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +4.91 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
+3.35 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.35 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.49 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.49 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 7:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
−0.63 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.63 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +117
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
39.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
37.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +155
CLV vs close
+1.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.47 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.06 pts
+0.67uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.06 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+3.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at -178 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.71 pts.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.8to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
0model band 0.8–1.7 · no game history on this row2
69.2%
Our chance?
0.8–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.2%.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−21.62 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
70.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.3%.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1 -205
CLV vs close
+3.80 pts
+0.49uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.80 pts.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.3%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
+5.01 pts
+0.48uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.01 pts.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.72total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.72
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.78 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -158
CLV vs close
+4.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.29 pts.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.3to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-143at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.3–2.2 · no game history on this row3
60.9%
Our chance?
0.3–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
+2.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.54 pts.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
ATH @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.44hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.44
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row3
70.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.94 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.6%.
Model EV
+5.90%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.3to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.3–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -155
CLV vs close
−1.25 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.25 pts.
ATL @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.78total bases
68% range0.9to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.78
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.9–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.9–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.23%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -191
CLV vs close
+2.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.91 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
59.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.73uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
−0.19 pts
+0.77uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.19 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
+0.87uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
60.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+4.63 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.63 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+6.02 pts
+0.68uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.02 pts.
SF @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+3.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.09 pts.
TOR @ TB · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+121at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.81
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.93%
Break-even
45.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+4.75 pts
+1.19uSettled at +121 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.75 pts.
TOR @ TB · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
70.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.1%.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
+1.24 pts
+0.48uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.24 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.23 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.27hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
45.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.47 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range1.0to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
1.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.4to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.4–2.3 · no game history on this row3
56.4%
Our chance?
0.4–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -138
CLV vs close
−0.42 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.42 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.99total bases
68% range0.6to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+106at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.6–3.4 · no game history on this row4
50.6%
Our chance?
0.6–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.99 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.21 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.21 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
48.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−1.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.87 pts.
STL @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+0.40 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.40 pts.