66 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Aug 19 · 48 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 114 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAD @ COL · 8:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+144at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
42.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.44uSettled at +144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.0to10.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+116at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–10.7 · no game history on this row12
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–10.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.62%
Break-even
46.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
−1.25 pts
+1.16uSettled at +116 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.25 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.22hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
41.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +147
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.77 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -116
CLV vs close
−0.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.43 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+113at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 +103
CLV vs close
+1.13 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+120at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 +107
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+174at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
38.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
36.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +165
CLV vs close
+1.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at +174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.53 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row2
39.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.78%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
1.5 -275
CLV vs close
−2.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −2.65 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
70.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.98 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.67 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.67 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.81total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-109at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.81 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.68 pts
+0.92uSettled at -109 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.68 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
40.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.86%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+3.21 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.21 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+5.83 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.83 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -113
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+3.57 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.57 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
67.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.9%.
Model EV
+5.27%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -241
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.46%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
40.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
0.5 +155
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row2
44.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.34%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.64 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+186at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
36.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.3%.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
35.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
33¢
Opened
0.5 +161
CLV vs close
−2.18 pts
+1.86uSettled at +186 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −2.18 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.9%.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -213
CLV vs close
+3.02 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.02 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-163at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
64.0%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 64.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 64.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.56 pts
+0.61uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.56 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
55.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+2.46 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-124at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -122
CLV vs close
−2.53 pts
+0.81uSettled at -124 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.53 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
69.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -270
CLV vs close
+1.08 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.08 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.13uSettled at +115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range1.4to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-149at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.55
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.4–1.7 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
1.4–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
59.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at -149 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.14 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.90 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.90 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.71%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -101
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.30 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.30hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.30
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.77%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.67 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-199at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
68.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
66.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -247
CLV vs close
+0.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -199 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.11 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -151
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.5to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-167at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.5–1.5 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
1.5–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -193
CLV vs close
+6.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +6.20 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
+0.91uSettled at -108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
68.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.0%.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -234
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
−1.46 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.46 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row3
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+2.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.35 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -225
CLV vs close
+2.47 pts
+0.51uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.47 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to4.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
51.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.59%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score.
STL @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range1.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-153at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.71
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
1.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
+0.65uSettled at -153 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
TOR @ TB · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.05%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+1.13uSettled at +113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.39total bases
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.4to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.8 · no game history on this row1
35.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
1.5 -253
CLV vs close
−0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +195 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.56 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.