63 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Aug 18 · 26 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 89 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +138
CLV vs close
+2.37 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.37 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
37.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +178
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
40.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.49%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
−1.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at +175 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.28 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to6.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.76 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -111
CLV vs close
−0.69 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.69 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row3
61.2%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.19%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
−0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.72 pts.
LAA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -180
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.5%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -198
CLV vs close
+2.63 pts
+0.59uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.63 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.95 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.01%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -168
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
39.2%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
−0.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.42 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.23 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to9.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-102at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.3 · no game history on this row10
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–9.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -107
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.6to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.83
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.6–3.1 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.6–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -138
CLV vs close
+5.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +5.30 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.3to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–2.3 · no game history on this row3
58.7%
Our chance?
0.3–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -168
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
68.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.9%.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
+1.08 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.08 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
69.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.2%.
Model EV
+5.59%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.52uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -215
CLV vs close
−35.90 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −35.90 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row4
45.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.35%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.76 pts.
SEA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
69.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.7%.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -261
CLV vs close
+3.80 pts
+0.48uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.80 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
+0.63uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.58 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
41.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.91%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +190
CLV vs close
+4.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.83 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.4%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.93 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.93 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
59.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -138
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.51total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-112at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.51
✗ actual 5
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row5
54.5%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.51 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
−1.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.14 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -107
CLV vs close
−2.03 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −2.03 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.3%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.16%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+0.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.26 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+0.55uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-178at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.9%.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.64 pts
+0.56uSettled at -178 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.64 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.1to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
69.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -247
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.39%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+4.74 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.74 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.25%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.9%.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -264
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+0.47uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
+1.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.48 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.75total bases
68% range0.8to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-139at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.75
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.7 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.8–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.75 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.19 pts
+0.72uSettled at -139 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.19 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.41%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+0.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.64 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.67%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.56 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -121
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
DET @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+4.24 pts
+0.56uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.24 pts.
DET @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
−3.33 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.33 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.