43 tracked MLB positions Monday · Aug 17 · 29 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 72 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to14.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
0model band 0.0–14.6 · no game history on this row16
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–14.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.76 to the under side, inside a band of ±13.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.05
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+104at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.47
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
50.7%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.49 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.89uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.78%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
−0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.56 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.99total bases
68% range0.0to7.3line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-104at ProphetX
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.99
✗ actual 10
0model band 0.0–7.3 · no game history on this row11
53.8%
Our chance?
0.0–7.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.99 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.61%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
2.5 -138
CLV vs close
+1.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.85 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.67%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.77 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.77 pts.
LAD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.0to4.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.66total bases
68% range1.1to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.66
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.1–2.2 · no game history on this row3
60.9%
Our chance?
1.1–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.66 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.76 pts.
ATL @ MIN · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
51.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.48 pts
+1.02uSettled at +104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.48 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+14.28%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+5.8 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+3.54 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.54 pts.
CWS @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -136
CLV vs close
+3.41 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
+0.86 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.86 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
39.6%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.68%
Break-even
37.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +163
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
68.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -168
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
40.6%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +144
CLV vs close
+0.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.47 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -300
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
34.5%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 34.5%.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +188
CLV vs close
+0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.56 pts.
ATH @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.05%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -178
CLV vs close
+3.09 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.09 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.7to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.7–1.8 · no game history on this row2
66.3%
Our chance?
0.7–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.3%.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -182
CLV vs close
−22.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −22.10 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.24%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+1.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.09 pts.
SD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.24
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.2%.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
70.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.0%.
Model EV
+4.98%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -245
CLV vs close
−35.42 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −35.42 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.3%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+59.90 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
65.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.8%.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -228
CLV vs close
+2.25 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.25 pts.
ARI @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+5.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.20 pts.
DET @ PIT · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
39.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
33¢
Opened
0.5 +156
CLV vs close
−1.97 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.97 pts.
DET @ PIT · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
60.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+4.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.63 pts.
DET @ PIT · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.3to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.3%
Our chance?
0.3–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
DET @ PIT · 7:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31total bases
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -129
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ PIT · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.76%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ PIT · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row3
45.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
30¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
−1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.40 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.70total bases
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.70
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−2.57 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.57 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Novig
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.22%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
−1.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.98 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row2
39.5%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.67%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range0.8to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.0 · no game history on this row2
57.4%
Our chance?
0.8–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.63 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.63 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.85total bases
68% range0.0to6.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-102at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.85
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+6.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.03 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.06%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
40.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.34 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.34 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
2.39total bases
68% range0.0to20.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.39
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–20.9 · no game history on this row22
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–20.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.89 to the under side, inside a band of ±18.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.22hits
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row6
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−3.03 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.03 pts.
STL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−3.49 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −3.49 pts.
MIA @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+3.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.63 pts.
MIA @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.57%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
−2.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −2.95 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.