59 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Aug 16 · 49 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 108 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.24 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-147at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.15%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.1%.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.10 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.10 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.82 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.82 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -254
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.53 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.53 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.55 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:20PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
SD @ CLE · 4:51PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.
Model EV
+6.24%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.95 pts.
SD @ CLE · 4:51PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +106
CLV vs close
−0.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.40 pts.
SD @ CLE · 4:51PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-167at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row4
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -210
−1.00uSettled at -167 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
SD @ CLE · 4:51PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.29hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-215at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.29
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
70.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.79 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.5%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
68.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -264
CLV vs close
+4.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -215 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.50 pts.
SD @ CLE · 4:51PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.72hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-114at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.72
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.47%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+6.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -114 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +6.73 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +113
CLV vs close
+4.01 pts
+1.12uSettled at +114 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.01 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.67%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.79%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.33%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -174
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.71%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.86%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+124at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
44.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.60 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.60 pts.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.45total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.45
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.45 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.30 pts.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
42.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.35hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.35
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.85 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -260
CLV vs close
+0.51 pts
−1.00uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.51 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+14.91%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+6.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.50 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.63%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
39.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.76%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
−0.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.70 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.3%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row5
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-111at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.21
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row7
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+0.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at -111 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.88 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to5.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.64total bases
68% range0.8to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.64
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.8–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.5%
Our chance?
0.8–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.64 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -122
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.43
✗ actual 5
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row5
62.0%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.77 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.59%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.45total bases
68% range1.0to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.45
0model band 1.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
1.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.45 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
1.5 -125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.79total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.79 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.5to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–2.2 · no game history on this row2
57.4%
Our chance?
0.5–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
COL @ SF · 4:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.18total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.18
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.18 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.05%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
−0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.45 pts.
STL @ CHC · 3:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−4.53 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 · graded from the box score · CLV −4.53 pts.
STL @ CHC · 3:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.14 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
36.5%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.44%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +200
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.96uSettled at +200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.12hits
68% range0.0to6.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.36%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.25 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range0.8to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-118at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.0 · no game history on this row2
56.8%
Our chance?
0.8–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.99%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+1.82 pts
+0.85uSettled at -118 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.82 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-157at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+0.30 pts
+0.64uSettled at -157 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.30 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.80total bases
68% range0.2to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.80
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–3.4 · no game history on this row4
57.5%
Our chance?
0.2–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.80 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.