55 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Aug 15 · 29 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 84 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+12.71%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+2.45 pts
+1.52uSettled at +155 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.45 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-122at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.15
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row7
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -138
CLV vs close
+0.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.99 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 7
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row8
61.0%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.85%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -148
CLV vs close
+0.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.37 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
36.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
35.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +186
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
+1.82uSettled at +186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.72 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.4to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.71
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–3.0 · no game history on this row3
56.4%
Our chance?
0.4–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -136
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.71%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +121
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.49%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+9.44 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +9.44 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.39hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.39
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
65.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.89 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.39 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.39 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
39.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.02%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.87 pts
+1.65uSettled at +165 · graded from the box score · CLV +0.87 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.0%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−1.34 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.34 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+110at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
51.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.02%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+9.28 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV +9.28 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
54.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.01%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
43.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.12%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+8.52 pts
+1.44uSettled at +144 · graded from the box score · CLV +8.52 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row3
48.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ PIT · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ PIT · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
−3.96 pts
+1.13uSettled at +115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −3.96 pts.
ARI @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.4to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–2.2 · no game history on this row2
57.1%
Our chance?
0.4–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.68%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -142
CLV vs close
+2.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.72 pts.
ARI @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.6to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.6–2.1 · no game history on this row2
58.4%
Our chance?
0.6–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.12%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -149
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
ARI @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.63 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+22.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +22.62 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-108at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.89
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
53.7%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -147
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -113
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.21%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.57 pts.
SD @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.76%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -136
CLV vs close
+7.11 pts
+0.75uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.11 pts.
SD @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.22 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.22 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +103
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
48.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−1.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.46 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
−2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV −2.16 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
42.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +121
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+163at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row2
39.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
38.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +156
CLV vs close
−2.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at +163 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.31 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
42.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +144
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+1.44uSettled at +144 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
37.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +164
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.08total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.08
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+0.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.55 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.64total bases
68% range0.4to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–2.9 · no game history on this row3
54.5%
Our chance?
0.4–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.64 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -134
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
MIA @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
BAL @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38total bases
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.21%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+8.03 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +8.03 pts.
BAL @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
BAL @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.11 pts.
WSH @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+10.70%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+6.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.24 pts.
WSH @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.2to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
0.2–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.10 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.10 pts.
WSH @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
COL @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.