56 tracked MLB positions Friday · Aug 14 · 22 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 78 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -225
−1.00uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.06hits
68% range0.0to7.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.06
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.0 · no game history on this row8
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.16%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+3.25 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.25 pts.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+2.64 pts
+0.56uSettled at -178 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.64 pts.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.74%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
−1.31 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.31 pts.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.59total bases
68% range1.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
1.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.59 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -155
CLV vs close
+2.41 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.41 pts.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-136at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row4
59.7%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.91 pts.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.44%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+11.41%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
−0.73 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.73 pts.
COL @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row5
60.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+3.21 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.21 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.0%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.34 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.34 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+0.65 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.65 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
38.0%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.45%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
32¢
Opened
0.5 +163
CLV vs close
+2.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at +175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.10 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.08total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.08
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row4
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -154
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +113
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +124
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
−0.37 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.37 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.93total bases
68% range0.4to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-143at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.93
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–3.5 · no game history on this row4
60.8%
Our chance?
0.4–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
+3.42 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.42 pts.
TEX @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+2.80 pts
+0.71uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.80 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.72hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-147at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.72
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -255
CLV vs close
+1.73 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.73 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
70.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.1%.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -235
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
+0.49uSettled at -205 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
42.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+1.56 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.56 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.13%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +113
CLV vs close
+3.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.09 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-111at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
54.4%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.88uSettled at -111 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.93total bases
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.93
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 32.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+11.78%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+5.56 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.56 pts.
KC @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.90%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score.
SEA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.9%.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.8to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.8–1.8 · no game history on this row2
63.3%
Our chance?
0.8–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
NYY @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to8.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+5.75 pts
+0.98uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.75 pts.
NYY @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.83%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.81 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.81 pts.
NYY @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range1.1to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.1–1.8 · no game history on this row2
60.4%
Our chance?
1.1–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
NYY @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.7%.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
+1.88 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.88 pts.
ARI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 49.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 69.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.91%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
ARI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-143at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.33%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.98 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.98 pts.
WSH @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -214
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
WSH @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+124at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
44.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+1.22uSettled at +124 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
SD @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.2%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
−7.14 pts
+0.51uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −7.14 pts.
SD @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+0.75uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
SD @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-139at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
−0.53 pts
+0.72uSettled at -139 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.53 pts.
SD @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.93%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−1.49 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.49 pts.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-108at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+133at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.20%
Break-even
42.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +108
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row4
37.6%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +175
CLV vs close
+5.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at +175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +5.30 pts.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.13%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -163
CLV vs close
+2.37 pts
+0.72uSettled at -136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.37 pts.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
69.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
BAL @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
BOS @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+5.99 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
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