36 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Aug 13 · 16 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 52 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.64 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.29hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.29
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.79 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.49uSettled at -198 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +123
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.06%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−2.78 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 · graded from the box score · CLV −2.78 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +157
CLV vs close
+0.83 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.83 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.3to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–1.0 · no game history on this row1
35.6%
Our chance?
0.3–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.6%.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
1.5 +174
CLV vs close
+1.19 pts
+1.95uSettled at +195 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.19 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +107
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+2.99 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.99 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.85%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-108at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row2
54.8%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+4.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.97 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.08%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
+3.10 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.10 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:30PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.71%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
+6.58 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +6.58 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:30PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -173
CLV vs close
+2.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.30 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:30PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -167
CLV vs close
+4.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.89 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:30PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row2
40.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.56%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.08 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.08 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:30PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
+2.48 pts
+0.67uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.48 pts.
PHI @ MIN · 7:30PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+12.01%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+1.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.47 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+4.91 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.4to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–2.2 · no game history on this row2
59.2%
Our chance?
0.4–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.74%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -159
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+6.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.60 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+1.41 pts
+0.68uSettled at -148 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.41 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.53%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -164
+0.69uSettled at -142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to5.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.29%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.60%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+4.64 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.64 pts.
CLE @ DET · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.84 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.84 pts.
CLE @ DET · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -143 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−3.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.29 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to4.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row2
44.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.47 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row2
39.9%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
−1.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.42 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
41.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +132
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-186at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.6%
Our chance?
0.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -252
CLV vs close
+5.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.29 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
68.5%
Our chance?
0.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.5%.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -258
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
+0.52uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
47.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.41%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -156
CLV vs close
+3.93 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.93 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
42.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row3
43.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.35 pts.