50 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Aug 12 · 17 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 67 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
TEX @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
39.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+0.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.75 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
36.8%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
35.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+1.58 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
69.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.1%.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
−36.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −36.36 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at -178 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.41 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.21 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.21 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.95%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
39.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.35%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+146at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.23%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +119
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+1.46uSettled at +146 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+1.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.99 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to10.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
0model band 0.0–10.1 · no game history on this row11
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–10.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.9to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–1.9 · no game history on this row2
59.9%
Our chance?
0.9–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.01%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -157
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.38%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:07PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.42%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.55uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
48.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−3.59 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.59 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
42.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.56 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.56 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.72hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.72
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.77 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.77 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
87¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.47 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.47 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.03%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−1.89 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.89 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -155
CLV vs close
−0.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.47 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-182at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.8%
Our chance?
0.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.8%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
76¢
Opened
0.5 +131
CLV vs close
+2.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.82 pts.
PIT @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-133at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.93 pts
+0.75uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.93 pts.
CLE @ DET · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -152
CLV vs close
+0.31 pts
+0.64uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.31 pts.
CLE @ DET · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
CLE @ DET · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.47%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ DET · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−3.37 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −3.37 pts.
CLE @ DET · 6:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+4.20%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+1.91 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ SD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.07 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.07 pts.
MIL @ SD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
−1.71 pts
+0.73uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.71 pts.
MIL @ SD · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range1.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.63
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
1.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.25 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.25 pts.
HOU @ SF · 3:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
88¢
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
+3.77 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.77 pts.
HOU @ SF · 3:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.37 pts.
HOU @ SF · 3:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
+4.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.03 pts.
COL @ ARI · 3:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+6.66%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ ARI · 3:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.1to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.7%
Our chance?
0.1–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -246
CLV vs close
−0.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.48 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+190at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row1
35.7%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+1.90uSettled at +190 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
40.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.16%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.29 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.17total bases
68% range0.3to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
0model band 0.3–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−0.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.67 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to5.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.78%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+4.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at -143 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.79 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.13%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.07%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+4.54 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.54 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.93%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+5.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +5.07 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.50 pts.
TB @ ATH · 3:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
53.4%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.82%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
−3.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −3.70 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.