56 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Aug 11 · 12 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 68 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
KC @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.26hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.91%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
HOU @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
−0.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.95 pts.
HOU @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-119at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
54.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.99 pts
+0.82uSettled at -119 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.99 pts.
HOU @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.54 pts
+0.77uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.54 pts.
HOU @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.72 pts.
COL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.77uSettled at -127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row4
47.3%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 +101
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
COL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-163at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.31 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
39.0%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.16%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
6¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+1.42 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.42 pts.
MIL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row2
43.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
9¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
45.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.42%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row4
60.2%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.93 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+5.07 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +5.07 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+13.75 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
55.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+11.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.50 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+190at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row2
36.4%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
−1.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at +190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.15 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
42.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.34 pts
+1.43uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.34 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.39%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-153at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+6.92%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
+3.55 pts
+0.65uSettled at -153 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.55 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.7to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–1.8 · no game history on this row2
69.4%
Our chance?
0.7–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.4%.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.37 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.37 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.8%.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.89%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
42.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.78%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.8 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+9.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +9.88 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.77%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -107
CLV vs close
+4.71 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.71 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.72%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +136
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -181
CLV vs close
−0.78 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.78 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+190at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+15.54%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +131
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +190 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
CIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
46.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.53%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +144
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
47.4%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -107
+1.18uSettled at +120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
BAL @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-228at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
71.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.92 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.9%.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
69.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
−0.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -228 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.47 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.74 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.74 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.09%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.75 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.75 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.4to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.4–0.8 · no game history on this row3
35.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
0.5 +195
CLV vs close
−0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.56 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.1%.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -166
CLV vs close
−5.88 pts
+0.59uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −5.88 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+14.86 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +14.86 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -147
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range1.0to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-158at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
1.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+4.28 pts
+0.63uSettled at -158 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.28 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -201
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+12.80 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
+2.29 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.29 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
+1.61 pts
+0.76uSettled at -132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.61 pts.
CHC @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+21.83%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+7.8 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.