32 tracked MLB positions Monday · Aug 10 · 6 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 38 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -139
CLV vs close
−0.18 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.18 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
69.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.5%.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -251
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
+0.48uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+4.94 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.94 pts.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+5.41 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
46.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+2.33 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.33 pts.
HOU @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.18hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.30%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.6%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.91%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.41 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.41 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
44.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.05%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
−1.40 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.40 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.3to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+190at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–1.0 · no game history on this row1
35.9%
Our chance?
0.3–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +190 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−2.66 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 · graded from the box score · CLV −2.66 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.9%.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
9¢
Opened
1.5 -217
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.65 pts.
TB @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
37.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +157
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
MIL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.30hits
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.30
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+2.49 pts
+0.71uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.49 pts.
MIL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-172at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.2%.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -172 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
37.4%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.72%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +155
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+101at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.20%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+0.99 pts
+1.01uSettled at +101 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.99 pts.
TEX @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+119at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
45.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at +119 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.00hits
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
53.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.66%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.98uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.1to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-199at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.8 · no game history on this row2
68.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
66.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -199 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -182
CLV vs close
−0.78 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.78 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.2to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–2.1 · no game history on this row2
64.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.20%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
41.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.93%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +155
CLV vs close
−0.15 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.15 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.13total bases
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.13 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 79.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.82%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
40.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +155
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.78 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.2–0.6 · no game history on this row4
38.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
+1.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.42 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.88 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.88 pts.
BAL @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
41.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
−0.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.43 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.6%.
Model EV
+9.71%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+6.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ ATL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:07PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.1%.
Model EV
+4.03%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -254
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:07PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
BOS @ TOR · 7:07PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.1%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.64 pts.