56 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Aug 9 · 18 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 74 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
HOU @ SD · 8:20PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
47.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
HOU @ SD · 8:20PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
HOU @ SD · 8:20PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-106at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
TB @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
TB @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.28%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+5.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.87 pts.
TB @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+1.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.45 pts.
TB @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.20 pts
+0.65uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.20 pts.
TB @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.88uSettled at -114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ ARI · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.2to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-113at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.2–2.5 · no game history on this row4
55.5%
Our chance?
0.2–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.54%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+2.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.70 pts.
LAD @ ARI · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+1.35 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.35 pts.
LAD @ ARI · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.73%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+6.03 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +6.03 pts.
DET @ SF · 4:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
DET @ SF · 4:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.18hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
DET @ SF · 4:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−0.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.46 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.3to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–1.0 · no game history on this row1
34.7%
Our chance?
0.3–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 34.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+2.00uSettled at +200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.71%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.23 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-139at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+4.80 pts
+0.72uSettled at -139 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.80 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.72 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.72 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 2:35PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -271
CLV vs close
+2.56 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.56 pts.
COL @ STL · 2:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.72total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.72
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.78 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -180
+0.63uSettled at -160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
COL @ STL · 2:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.6%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.29 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.29 pts.
COL @ STL · 2:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
40.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.68%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−1.42 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.42 pts.
COL @ STL · 2:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.00hits
68% range0.0to20.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
0model band 0.0–20.1 · no game history on this row22
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–20.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±20.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.37%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ KC · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row3
36.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.2%.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
−0.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at +185 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.60 pts.
CHC @ KC · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
−3.48 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.48 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+4.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.63 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ KC · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+156at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.8%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.23%
Break-even
39.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.80 pts
+1.56uSettled at +156 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +4.80 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10total bases
68% range0.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-168at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.10
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
62.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -210
+0.60uSettled at -168 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
CHC @ KC · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.3to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-143at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.3%
Our chance?
0.3–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.55%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.69 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.69 pts.
CHC @ KC · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.48%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +126
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ MIL · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to6.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-107at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.2 · no game history on this row7
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–6.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -107 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.33%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+6.47 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.47 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.16 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −2.16 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+107at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 66.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +107
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.15hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.45 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.45 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.03%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -162
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.78 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
40.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+6.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +6.24 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.65%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+1.87 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.87 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 1:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 1:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
−0.89 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.89 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 1:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
−3.17 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −3.17 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 1:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+7.94 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +7.94 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 1:35PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row5
59.5%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.74 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 1:35PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.2%.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
+0.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -178 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.26 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 1:35PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +106
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
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