45 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Aug 8 · 9 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 54 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
TB @ SEA · 9:50PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
LAD @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to7.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.3 · no game history on this row8
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–7.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -136
CLV vs close
+1.90 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.90 pts.
COL @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
39.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +152
CLV vs close
+7.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.27 pts.
COL @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.97%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +132
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
DET @ SF · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.18hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.70 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.70 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+6.30 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ CWS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.50%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
36.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +165
CLV vs close
+4.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.32 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+3.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.76 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
HOU @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+4.84 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.84 pts.
HOU @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.96%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +141
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
40.6%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.92%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+6.33%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
43.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.12%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+5.53 pts
+1.44uSettled at +144 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +5.53 pts.
CHC @ KC · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +139
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
CHC @ KC · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.46%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.40 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.40 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
42.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.03%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.85 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.85 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.19%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.89 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.89 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.48%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.92%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.69 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-162at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -182
CLV vs close
+0.43 pts
+0.62uSettled at -162 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.43 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.63 pts.
NYM @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.6%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +134
CLV vs close
+2.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.01 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-106at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
54.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -121
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.14hits
68% range0.0to5.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.14
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -114
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
41.7%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.23%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.97
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row3
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.71%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.56 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.07%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row4
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row1
51.0%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 49.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+0.24 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.24 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row5
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+6.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +6.06 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+4.67 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.67 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.62total bases
68% range0.3to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+112at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.62
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.9 · no game history on this row3
50.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.62 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.36%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -109
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.23 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.23 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+1.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.52 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.42total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-162at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.3%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+5.54%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.71 pts
+0.62uSettled at -162 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.71 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 3:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 3:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 3:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
60.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.85 pts.