49 tracked MLB positions Friday · Aug 7 · 9 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 58 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
DET @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ SEA · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-172at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.0%.
Model EV
+5.94%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -232
CLV vs close
+5.51 pts
−1.00uSettled at -172 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +5.51 pts.
TB @ SEA · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
55.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
TB @ SEA · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.87%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+6.10 pts
+1.11uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +6.10 pts.
TB @ SEA · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-116at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+4.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at -116 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.63 pts.
LAD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.2to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.5 · no game history on this row2
68.5%
Our chance?
0.2–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.5%.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−0.48 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.48 pts.
LAD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.65%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.34 pts.
HOU @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.48 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.48 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 8:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 8:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.67%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 8:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
75¢
Opened
1.5 -148
CLV vs close
+2.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.89 pts.
TOR @ PHI · 8:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row3
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -137
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.11total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
−2.38 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.38 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at +103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
ATL @ NYY · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
54.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+3.12 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.12 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -222
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -204
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score.
BAL @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.54%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +141
CLV vs close
+2.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.19 pts.
BAL @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
69.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.3%.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
−19.05 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −19.05 pts.
COL @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
42.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.29%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.44uSettled at +144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.71 pts.
COL @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
40.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.76%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+3.95 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.95 pts.
COL @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
CHC @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
CHC @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+3.90 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.90 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to5.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
1.5 -122
CLV vs close
+2.57 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.57 pts.
CLE @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at +106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.91 pts.
MIN @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
MIN @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
53.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
MIN @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row2
42.1%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.30%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.3%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ WSH · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.41 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row2
43.5%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+6.74 pts
+0.76uSettled at -132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.74 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-168at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
62.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.08 pts
+0.60uSettled at -168 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.08 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.51total bases
68% range1.5to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-136at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.51
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.5–1.5 · no game history on this row2
60.1%
Our chance?
1.5–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.51 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -136 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.50 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.50 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.18%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.20%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−1.15 pts
+1.43uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.15 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.10 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.33%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.91 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.96%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.86 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.86 pts.
LAA @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Novig
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1 -200
CLV vs close
+1.07 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.07 pts.
ATH @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.