46 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Aug 6 · 13 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 59 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
40.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.95%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.29 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+7.08 pts
+1.23uSettled at +123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.08 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.55 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
36.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.0%.
Model EV
+8.09%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.75 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to5.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
46.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.78%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 69.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Bovada
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at BetOpenly
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at BetOpenly · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +137
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+162at BetOpenly
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
39.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
38.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at +162 at BetOpenly · graded from the box score · CLV +1.20 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.1to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.23
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.1–2.4 · no game history on this row3
59.2%
Our chance?
0.1–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.05%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -136 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-103at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -103 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.64 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+6.02%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -233
CLV vs close
+5.48 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.48 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.55%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -156
CLV vs close
+7.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.27 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.82%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+4.72 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.72 pts.
DET @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.30hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.30
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -206
CLV vs close
+1.51 pts
+0.57uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.51 pts.
DET @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
64.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.9%.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -208
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
DET @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -191
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+6.48%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+2.44 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.44 pts.
DET @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
52.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.40%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
TOR @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.61 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.41%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
−18.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −18.18 pts.
TOR @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-124at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -156
CLV vs close
+4.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -124 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.16 pts.
TOR @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -129
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
TOR @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -135
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TOR @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
38.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.54%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.05 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.05 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
48.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
66.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.4%.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+0.26 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.26 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
2¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row3
41.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.73%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
4¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 96¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
96¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.44 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.20%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
+2.14 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.14 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
51.3%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.69%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 12:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row2
37.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.65 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 12:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+0.42 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.42 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 12:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 12:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 12:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-188at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
68.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.1%.Risk: an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
65.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+0.71 pts
+0.53uSettled at -188 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.71 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 12:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.63 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ BAL · 12:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 12:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+168at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
40.6%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.78%
Break-even
37.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+4.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +168 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.35 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 12:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+0.77 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.77 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 12:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row5
61.0%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 12:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
41.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.98%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
LAA @ BAL · 12:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+188at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
37.1%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.82%
Break-even
34.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +158
CLV vs close
+0.37 pts
+1.88uSettled at +188 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.37 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.