68 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Aug 5 · 28 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 96 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
DET @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
67.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.5%.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -209
CLV vs close
+1.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.63 pts.
DET @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.42 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.42 pts.
DET @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to5.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
DET @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.86 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.86 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to6.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.33%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -158
CLV vs close
+4.11 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.11 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
2¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +118 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.75 pts.
DET @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to8.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-109at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.4 · no game history on this row9
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–8.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -109 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
STL @ NYY · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.3%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.54%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -193
CLV vs close
+5.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.78 pts.
STL @ NYY · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
38.7%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ NYY · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
STL @ NYY · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.35%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
STL @ NYY · 8:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
68.4%
Our chance?
0.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 -160
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
STL @ NYY · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.07%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
2¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
37.5%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.97%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +165
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
+3.00 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.00 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.1to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.6 · no game history on this row2
67.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -254
CLV vs close
+3.91 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.91 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
42.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.97%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+3.21 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.21 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.52total bases
68% range0.3to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+106at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.8 · no game history on this row3
50.2%
Our chance?
0.3–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.52 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+4.20 pts
+0.85uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.20 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.12%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -131
CLV vs close
+2.70 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.70 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
63.5%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -204
CLV vs close
−19.87 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −19.87 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.89 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.89 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+0.44 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.44 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.34%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.33 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.33 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
54.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.42%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+4.95 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +4.95 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.4to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-124at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.4–2.2 · no game history on this row2
57.4%
Our chance?
0.4–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+3.15 pts
+0.81uSettled at -124 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.15 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -238
CLV vs close
+3.66 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.66 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+0.92 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.92 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.2%.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+3.52 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +3.52 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.86%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +133
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+3.27 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.27 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.16%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+0.67 pts
+1.13uSettled at +113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.67 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.1to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+172at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.3 · no game history on this row1
38.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
36.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 +168
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.72uSettled at +172 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.2to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.4 · no game history on this row2
67.8%
Our chance?
0.2–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -242
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.04%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.77%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.44 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.31hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.31
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
68.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.81 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.5%.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+3.41 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.41 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−5.21 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −5.21 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
41.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.77%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+4.64 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.64 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
42.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.10%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at +148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.34 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
37.3%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+5.95 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.95 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.5%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +131
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.58 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-107at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
53.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
+0.93uSettled at -107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
LAA @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +106 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.