54 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Aug 4 · 18 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 72 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.82%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-121at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.77 pts
+0.83uSettled at -121 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.77 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.2%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -239
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+0.52uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.02%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -141
CLV vs close
+6.37 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.1to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.8%
Our chance?
0.1–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.6to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
0model band 0.6–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.6–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+5.79 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-124at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+2.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at -124 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.09 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
71.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.99 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.2%.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.12total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-120at Bovada
line 1.5 → 2.5
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.12
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.12 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.79 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +1.79 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
1.5 -286
CLV vs close
+2.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.35 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14total bases
68% range0.2to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-167at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.2%
Our chance?
0.2–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.2%.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
−19.99 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −19.99 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.15
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+2.90 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.90 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+6.54 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-111at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.35 pts
+0.90uSettled at -111 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.35 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
54.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.16%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.34 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.34 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -234
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.48total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-112at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row5
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+0.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.22 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
−0.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at -159 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.61 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
65.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.8%.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -215
CLV vs close
−1.37 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.37 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -213
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to6.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
−1.46 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.46 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.59
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.29%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
+1.34 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PIT @ MIL · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.63
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.92 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.92 pts.
MIA @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.91%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
61.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+3.21 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.21 pts.
CWS @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.77 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.82%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.52%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -199
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.56
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+7.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +7.94 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.68
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.33%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+7.22 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.22 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.92%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetOpenly
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetOpenly · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to7.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
−0.67 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.67 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
66.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.4%.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.10
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.72uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ CIN · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.
Model EV
+4.39%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -221
CLV vs close
+0.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.54 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.2to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.3 · no game history on this row2
67.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.1%.
Model EV
+4.38%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -261
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ CLE · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to9.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+114at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
51.4%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.91%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+4.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +114 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.01 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+108at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.65
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -114
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
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