35 tracked MLB positions Monday · Aug 3 · 14 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 49 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+3.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -184 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.47 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to5.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+137at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
42.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +142
CLV vs close
+2.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at +137 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.25 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-108at BetOpenly
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
53.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -119
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at BetOpenly · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.1to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+108at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.1–2.4 · no game history on this row3
50.3%
Our chance?
0.1–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+137at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row4
45.9%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.69%
Break-even
42.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at +137 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.28 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row5
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−0.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.82 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.82total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.82
✗ actual 8
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row9
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.82 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
2.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-162at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.77 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.02%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+3.08 pts
−1.00uSettled at -162 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.08 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at ReBet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.01%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -179
CLV vs close
+5.00 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at ReBet · graded from the box score · CLV +5.00 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−3.14 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.85%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+2.90 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.90 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.61
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -119
CLV vs close
+5.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.87 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.54hits
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+196at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
34.9%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.54 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 34.9%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 65.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 34.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
33.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
33¢
Opened
1.5 +195
CLV vs close
+2.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +196 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.58 pts.
TOR @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+112at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 74.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.85%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to0.7line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+118at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.7 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.7
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 73.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+10.33%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +118 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.57 pts.
SF @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.0%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.98%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.47hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.47
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.97 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.42 pts
+0.54uSettled at -184 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.42 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-196at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
66.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -215
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
+0.51uSettled at -196 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
LAD @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.45total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.45
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row2
61.1%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.45 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.4to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.5 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
1.4–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+0.37 pts
+0.76uSettled at -132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.37 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-112at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.89%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row3
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.37total bases
68% range0.9to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–1.9 · no game history on this row2
60.5%
Our chance?
0.9–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.37 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -199
CLV vs close
−0.35 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.35 pts.
PIT @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-116at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
55.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−2.72 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row2
61.1%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −3.05 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-133at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row2
36.9%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 36.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +173
CLV vs close
+0.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 · graded from the box score · CLV +0.65 pts.
STL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.03%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.1%.
Model EV
+5.27%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+4.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.10 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -178
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.87 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.7%.
Model EV
+4.57%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.18hits
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 76.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.21%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
−0.46 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.46 pts.