61 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Aug 2 · 17 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 78 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
BOS @ LAD · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
53.2%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.29%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -126
CLV vs close
+2.51 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.51 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 96¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
96¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
−0.20 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.20 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 7:21PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
43.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.95%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+4.63 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.7%.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.78 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.78 pts.
MIN @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
−0.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.89 pts.
MIN @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.37total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.37
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row2
59.8%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.37 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.76%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+5.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +5.18 pts.
SF @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
SF @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
SF @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
SF @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-182at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.40
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
67.2%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.2%.
Model EV
+4.19%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
−0.25 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.25 pts.
SF @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.1to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+106at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
0model band 0.1–2.2 · no game history on this row2
50.1%
Our chance?
0.1–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Hard Rock Bet
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.1%.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+3.25 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.25 pts.
DET @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
+3.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.72 pts.
DET @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-196at BetOnline
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.5%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
66.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
+5.21 pts
+0.51uSettled at -196 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +5.21 pts.
DET @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
68.0%
Our chance?
0.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
+3.52 pts
+0.48uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.52 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 3:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
8¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 3:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
8¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 3:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
8¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 3:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to7.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.66
0model band 0.0–7.8 · no game history on this row8
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–7.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ LAA · 3:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-127at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
58.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
+0.79uSettled at -127 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.71total bases
68% range0.0to6.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.2 · no game history on this row7
55.7%
Our chance?
0.0–6.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.79 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.63 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.79 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.04%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+7.29 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +7.29 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.69uSettled at -145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.70 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -184
CLV vs close
+3.64 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.64 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+5.03 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.03 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range0.5to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.5–2.4 · no game history on this row3
51.7%
Our chance?
0.5–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.30total bases
68% range0.2to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+108at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.4 · no game history on this row3
50.4%
Our chance?
0.2–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.77%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.90 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.90 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range0.2to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+108at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.2–2.6 · no game history on this row4
49.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.72total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.72
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.78 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
KC @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.81total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.81
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.69 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.41
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+7.13%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
−0.29 pts
+0.61uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.29 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+0.68 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.68 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
39.7%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.12%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +175
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
51.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.86%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
TEX @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.57 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.57 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
CWS @ TB · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.6to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-177at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.6–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.2%
Our chance?
0.6–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.2%.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
63.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.14 pts
+0.56uSettled at -177 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.14 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-186at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
67.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−19.99 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −19.99 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.4to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.1%
Our chance?
0.4–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+5.78 pts
+0.72uSettled at -138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.78 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.2to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–2.3 · no game history on this row3
59.4%
Our chance?
0.2–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.93 pts
+0.75uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.93 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.