59 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Aug 1 · 4 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 63 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
59.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.71%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -152
CLV vs close
+7.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +7.76 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
39.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at +156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.15 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.92%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+6.71 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-162at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.9%.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
+0.62uSettled at -162 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-153at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.54%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+0.65uSettled at -153 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.2%.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+0.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.96 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
MIL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.66
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+8.90 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-199at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.34
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
68.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.84 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
66.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+0.11 pts
+0.50uSettled at -199 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.11 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-139at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -139 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.47 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to7.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.5 · no game history on this row8
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–7.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+0.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.25 pts.
SF @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.0%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.99%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +141
CLV vs close
+3.55 pts
+1.41uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.55 pts.
SF @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.43
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.64
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
SF @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.47 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.47 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.4%.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ COL · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-159at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.04
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.0%.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -178
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -159 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
69.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.2%.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-186at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.97
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row3
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -234
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.48 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-205at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row4
69.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.5%.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
+2.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -205 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.48 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.12 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.12 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
41.7%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+3.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.29 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-107at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -133
CLV vs close
+4.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -107 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.26 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row3
55.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.58 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
69.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.4%.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+2.48 pts
+0.49uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.48 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
WSH @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.31hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.31
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.81 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+0.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at -145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.82 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to8.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.45%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+4.19%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
24¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+3.58 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.58 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+2.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.41 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+8.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +8.25 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.63
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.54%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+0.80 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.80 pts.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +117
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.4to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.6%
Our chance?
0.4–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -217
CLV vs close
+3.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +3.77 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.65
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
62.4%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+5.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.28 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.7%.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -213
CLV vs close
+1.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.56 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.48hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.48
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
70.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.98 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.3%.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+0.51 pts
−1.00uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.51 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.59
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.20%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 96¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
96¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CWS @ TB · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.08 pts
+1.18uSettled at +118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.08 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.