47 tracked MLB positions Friday · Jul 31 · 16 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 63 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIN @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.29%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.73 pts.
BOS @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ SD · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.13%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
SF @ SD · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+16.42%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+7.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
SF @ SD · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-192at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
65.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -202
CLV vs close
+3.00 pts
+0.52uSettled at -192 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.00 pts.
SF @ SD · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.70%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-225at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
71.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.89 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
69.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -243
CLV vs close
−34.75 pts
+0.44uSettled at -225 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −34.75 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.61
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
58.1%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.60%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
69.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.3%.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
77¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
−33.33 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 · graded from the box score · CLV −33.33 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.85 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -169
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ COL · 9:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-167at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -208
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.73 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -208
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-195at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.4%.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -231
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.58 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-167at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.05
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -184
CLV vs close
+1.09 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.09 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-195at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.6%.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -234
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.2to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-113at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–2.5 · no game history on this row3
55.4%
Our chance?
0.2–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -134
CLV vs close
+3.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.47 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.8%.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
81¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
+0.55 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.55 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -215
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
+0.66uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
KC @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.86 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -152
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to5.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.45 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+109at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.52
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+1.17 pts
+1.09uSettled at +109 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.17 pts.
TEX @ HOU · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.22hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+0.67 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.67 pts.
CWS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.8%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
CWS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.03%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
CWS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.4to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.4–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.57%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1 -140
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Novig
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.63
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1 -134
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.7 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 71.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.49%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+2.11 pts
+1.11uSettled at +111 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.11 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
ARI @ CLE · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.67%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.01 pts.
STL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
STL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
61.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at BetOpenly
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.21%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+4.13 pts
+1.18uSettled at +118 at BetOpenly · graded from the box score · CLV +4.13 pts.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.1to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-205at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.04
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.1–1.9 · no game history on this row3
69.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.4%.Risk: an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+1.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -205 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.73 pts.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
+1.88 pts
+0.54uSettled at -184 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.88 pts.
PHI @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -172
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.65 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to9.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.4 · no game history on this row10
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–9.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.67%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.60 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.14total bases
68% range0.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-182at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
0model band 0.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
67.4%
Our chance?
0.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -118
CLV vs close
−14.79 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range1.0to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✗ actual 4
0model band 1.0–1.7 · no game history on this row4
63.6%
Our chance?
1.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -210
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score.
PIT @ CIN · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.51
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row3
51.7%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+5.56 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.56 pts.
NYY @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.76%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -111
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.