30 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Jul 30 · 3 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 33 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -238
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.92 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
SF @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.82%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +139
CLV vs close
+5.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.07 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-205at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.80 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.9%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
+0.49uSettled at -205 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
SF @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-196at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
66.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
+2.53 pts
+0.51uSettled at -196 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.53 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-210at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.85 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.9%.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -161
CLV vs close
−25.73 pts
+0.48uSettled at -210 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −25.73 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.67 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.6%.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−23.85 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −23.85 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.20 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.20 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetOpenly
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.17%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+6.70 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at BetOpenly · graded from the box score · CLV +6.70 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.8%.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.49 pts
+0.57uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.49 pts.
MIA @ NYM · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row2
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.89%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.28 pts.
PIT @ CIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+4.44 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.44 pts.
CHC @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row2
43.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.82%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−1.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.17 pts.
CHC @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-195at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.2%
Our chance?
0.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.2%.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
−2.47 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.47 pts.
CHC @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range0.6to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-104at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.6–2.2 · no game history on this row2
54.5%
Our chance?
0.6–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.88%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.1%.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -207
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.1to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.5 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
+0.26 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.26 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.67 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
−20.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −20.77 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +106 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at Fanatics Sportsbook
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.61
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+13.61%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+6.5 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+6.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +6.93 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
55.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -164
CLV vs close
−0.43 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.43 pts.
KC @ MIN · 1:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.62total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.88 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
KC @ MIN · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.10 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.10 pts.
KC @ MIN · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row2
40.3%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.89%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ TB · 12:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.61
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
TEX @ TB · 12:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.22hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.02%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+1.43 pts
+0.98uSettled at -102 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.43 pts.
TEX @ TB · 12:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.4%.Risk: an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+4.25 pts
+0.54uSettled at -184 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.25 pts.
TEX @ TB · 12:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.62
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+8.67 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ TB · 12:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
+0.68uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.