48 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Jul 29 · 12 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 60 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.02
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
68.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
55.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+5.31%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
64.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.9%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -215
CLV vs close
−0.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at -167 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.28 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.76 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.76 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.0to4.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-105at Fliff
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
53.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 97¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+9.03%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
97¢
Opened
0.5 +113
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
+1.13uSettled at +113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
60.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.87 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.30 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.92
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
68.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.58 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.9%.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
90¢
Opened
1.5 -235
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.7%
Our chance?
0.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.7%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
1.5 -257
CLV vs close
+1.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.15 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+18.12%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+7.0 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+6.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.99 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+4.84 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+161at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
39.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
38.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at +161 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.90 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.56%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.92
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.58 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.6%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
−19.01 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −19.01 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.45%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+3.37 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.37 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
69.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.4%.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+4.24 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.24 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+2.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.52 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.07%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -102
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range1.1to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.43
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.1–1.8 · no game history on this row2
57.7%
Our chance?
1.1–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.78 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+2.45 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.45 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.Risk: an exchange is asking 97¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+5.65%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
97¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
+3.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.70 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.96 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
CLE @ CIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
CLE @ CIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
69.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+3.53 pts
+0.52uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.53 pts.
CLE @ CIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.29 pts.
TEX @ TB · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+4.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.47 pts.
TEX @ TB · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+3.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.96 pts.
COL @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.0%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
COL @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
COL @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.6%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ SF · 3:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
−1.48 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.48 pts.
MIL @ SF · 3:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 74.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ DET · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row5
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.9%.
Model EV
+8.35%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+4.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +4.73 pts.
BAL @ DET · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to6.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-102at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.3 · no game history on this row7
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+0.98uSettled at -102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 1:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -102
CLV vs close
+1.66 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.66 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.76%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
4¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+5.71%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
47.8%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.20%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 +106
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -221
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
+0.61uSettled at -164 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to6.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.6 · no game history on this row7
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.42%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+0.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.87 pts.
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