75 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Jul 28 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.58
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.05 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.15%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
−3.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −3.44 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.9%.
Model EV
+2.88%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.52uSettled at -194 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.15
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.34%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.62total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.62
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.62 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.07%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
−24.53 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −24.53 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.32hits
68% range0.9to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at Fanatics Sportsbook
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–1.7 · no game history on this row2
67.8%
Our chance?
0.9–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.8%.
Model EV
+1.62%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+110at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 74.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+3.60 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +3.60 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.66total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-149at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.66
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.66 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.16 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.69%
Break-even
59.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.16 pts
+0.67uSettled at -149 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.16 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.37total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.37
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.37 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.96%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.54%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−0.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.78 pts.
COL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.0to7.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 2.03
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.3 · no game history on this row8
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.47%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
COL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.36%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.38%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54total bases
68% range0.0to4.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-121at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.96 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.73%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+5.3 pts
Kalshi ask
2¢
Opened
1.5 -121
CLV vs close
+4.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at -121 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +4.93 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
39.7%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.18%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
−1.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.62 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.56%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Fliff
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.23
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
−3.33 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −3.33 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to7.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.7 · no game history on this row8
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–7.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.78%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+6.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +6.41 pts.
COL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.43
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.93 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.25%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+5.60 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.65total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.65
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.75%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−1.15 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.15 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
64.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.2%.Risk: an exchange is asking 96¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
96¢
Opened
1.5 +156
CLV vs close
−22.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −22.26 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.37total bases
68% range0.0to10.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–10.4 · no game history on this row11
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–10.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.37 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.45%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
1.5 +116
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.45total bases
68% range0.0to49.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-102at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.45
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–49.8 · no game history on this row53
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–49.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.45 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.95 to the over side, inside a band of ±47.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.60%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
33¢
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
+0.98uSettled at -102 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.50 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+6.38%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+6.26 pts
+0.69uSettled at -144 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +6.26 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+1.62%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
28¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.88 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.88 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.97total bases
68% range0.0to27.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.97
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–27.2 · no game history on this row29
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–27.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.97 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±24.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.63%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.42total bases
68% range0.9to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.42
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.9–4.0 · no game history on this row4
50.2%
Our chance?
0.9–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.42 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.92 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 72.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -109
CLV vs close
−2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −2.16 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.68%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+4.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.44 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.43%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.53total bases
68% range1.4to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.7 · no game history on this row2
43.2%
Our chance?
1.4–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.53 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.93%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +122
CLV vs close
+2.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.47 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.36%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.74%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row4
62.4%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.25%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -225
CLV vs close
−22.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 · graded from the box score · CLV −22.26 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.12%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
4¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.64 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.64 pts.
CHC @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.20total bases
68% range0.0to8.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.20
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–8.6 · no game history on this row9
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–8.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.43%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.41 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.41 pts.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.62%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -193
CLV vs close
+3.71 pts
+0.66uSettled at -152 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.71 pts.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.9%.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -267
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range0.7to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.7–2.5 · no game history on this row3
45.5%
Our chance?
0.7–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.19%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.49
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.26%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.60%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.1to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-185at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.4 · no game history on this row2
65.3%
Our chance?
0.1–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+0.57%
Break-even
64.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
−2.65 pts
+0.54uSettled at -185 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.65 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.39%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
+1.33 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.33 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.02%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -118
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYY @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.55
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.05 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.37%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1 -143
CLV vs close
+2.69 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.69 pts.
KC @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.91%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.90 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.90 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.85total bases
68% range0.0to17.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.85
0model band 0.0–17.5 · no game history on this row19
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–17.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.85 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.90%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+0.46 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range0.0to7.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at ReBet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.47
0model band 0.0–7.0 · no game history on this row8
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–7.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.97 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.34%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -124
CLV vs close
+4.38 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.76%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.75 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.71%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1 -123
CLV vs close
+4.52 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.38
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.88 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
−5.95 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.