60 tracked MLB positions Monday · Jul 27 · 60 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIL @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.90total bases
68% range0.5to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+158at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.5–3.3 · no game history on this row4
38.8%
Our chance?
0.5–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.03%
Break-even
38.8%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +158 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.06 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.03%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.81total bases
68% range0.7to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+172at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.81
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.7–2.9 · no game history on this row3
39.1%
Our chance?
0.7–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.81 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 39.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.38%
Break-even
36.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
1.5 +145
CLV vs close
+3.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at +172 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.24 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.33
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.83 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.85%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1 -155
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
MIL @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.0to4.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.9%.
Model EV
+0.57%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1 +171
−1.00uSettled at -190 · graded from the box score.
BOS @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.1%.
Model EV
+0.62%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.46%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+3.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at -164 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.40 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.32total bases
68% range0.4to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
0model band 0.4–2.2 · no game history on this row2
57.9%
Our chance?
0.4–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.05%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
1.5 -159
CLV vs close
+3.04 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+0.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.67 pts.
BOS @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-230at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.9%.
Model EV
+0.26%
Break-even
69.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
−36.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -230 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −36.36 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.74%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV −2.38 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.45total bases
68% range0.9to4.0line 1.5?
Solid lean to the over 1.5-102at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.45
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.9–4.0 · no game history on this row4
50.7%
Our chance?
0.9–4.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.45 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.95 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 72.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.45%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 -103
CLV vs close
−0.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.99 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+137at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
42.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.26 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-149at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.61
✓ actual 6
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row7
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.44%
Break-even
59.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+4.45 pts
+0.67uSettled at -149 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.45 pts.
HOU @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.0to7.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.70
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–7.5 · no game history on this row8
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–7.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.21%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
1 -149
+0.74uSettled at -135 · graded from the box score.
CHC @ STL · 8:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row3
59.5%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 8:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
43.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.09%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.66 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.66 pts.
CHC @ STL · 8:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.30total bases
68% range0.0to15.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.30
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–15.5 · no game history on this row17
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–15.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.30 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±13.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.30%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
CHC @ STL · 8:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.65%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ STL · 8:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.44 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.44 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.94%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -138
CLV vs close
+3.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.41 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-129at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
59.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.43%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -129
CLV vs close
+0.19 pts
+0.78uSettled at -129 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.19 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.18%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
2¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.75 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.75total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+126at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.75
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.75 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.34%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
−4.25 pts
+1.26uSettled at +126 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −4.25 pts.
NYY @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.49
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.9%.
Model EV
+0.55%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1 -215
CLV vs close
−1.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.23 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
+0.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +0.18 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.23total bases
68% range0.0to7.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+126at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.23
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.7 · no game history on this row8
44.7%
Our chance?
0.0–7.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.00%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at +126 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV −0.77 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.05total bases
68% range0.0to6.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at Caesars
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.05
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
45.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.05 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 +112
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
ATL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+6.57 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.36%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
+1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score.
CLE @ CIN · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.32total bases
68% range0.8to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+100at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.32
0model band 0.8–3.8 · no game history on this row4
50.0%
Our chance?
0.8–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.82 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 97¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 70.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.06%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
97¢
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ CIN · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-122at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.25%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
−2.80 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ CIN · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to11.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+112at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
0model band 0.0–11.8 · no game history on this row13
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–11.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.40%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ CIN · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.38
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
61.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.88 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.59%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1 -156
CLV vs close
−25.22 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ CIN · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.67total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.67
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.67 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.17 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.37%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
1 +178
CLV vs close
−23.90 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TOR @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
3.2total bases
68% range0.0to29.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 3.2
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–29.8 · no game history on this row32
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–29.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±26.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.38%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.16%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -111
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+1.98%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−0.74 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.74 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.0to10.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+117at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.70
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–10.2 · no game history on this row11
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–10.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.46%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.94 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.94 pts.
TOR @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -219
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.8%.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
PHI @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.90total bases
68% range0.3to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+171at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.90
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.3–3.5 · no game history on this row5
39.9%
Our chance?
0.3–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 39.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.99%
Break-even
36.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +136
CLV vs close
+3.42 pts
+1.71uSettled at +171 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.42 pts.
PHI @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range0.0to32.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+109at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.40
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–32.9 · no game history on this row35
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–32.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.90 to the over side, inside a band of ±31.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.12%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +109 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +2.89 pts.
PHI @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to13.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+109at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–13.2 · no game history on this row14
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–13.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±12.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.56%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
+1.09uSettled at +109 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
PHI @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.27%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1 -165
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
ARI @ PIT · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
44.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.53%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.39 pts.
ARI @ PIT · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.78total bases
68% range0.5to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+146at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.78
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.5–3.0 · no game history on this row3
41.2%
Our chance?
0.5–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.40%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
1.5 +146
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+1.46uSettled at +146 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
BAL @ DET · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.90total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.90
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
42.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.81%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
ARI @ PIT · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.54total bases
68% range0.0to7.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.54
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.7 · no game history on this row8
42.1%
Our chance?
0.0–7.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.54 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.04 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.99%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ PIT · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range0.0to7.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.63
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.2 · no game history on this row8
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–7.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.58%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−1.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −1.36 pts.
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