75 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Jul 26 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
NYY @ PHI · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.41%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -102
CLV vs close
−1.71 pts
+0.98uSettled at -102 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV −1.71 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.42total bases
68% range0.0to6.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+145at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.42
✓ actual 6
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row7
41.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.42 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.92 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.39%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
1.5 +145
+1.45uSettled at +145 at Bovada · graded from the box score.
NYY @ PHI · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -162
CLV vs close
−2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -142 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV −2.16 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.18%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -123
CLV vs close
+3.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at -123 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +3.69 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.01%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
LAA @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.2to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
0model band 0.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
71.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 71.1%.
Model EV
+7.76%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -194
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+0.86%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.15 pts.
LAA @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+2.36%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -216
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -184 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
LAA @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.63
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.43%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
−0.89 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −0.89 pts.
LAA @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.62%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+3.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at -123 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +3.69 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.12%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+5.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +5.30 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to10.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–10.8 · no game history on this row12
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–10.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
59.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
−2.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −2.90 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.0to22.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–22.8 · no game history on this row25
51.3%
Our chance?
0.0–22.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±21.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.58%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.0to5.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+2.31%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.80total bases
68% range0.0to16.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–16.0 · no game history on this row17
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–16.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.80 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±14.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.68%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
−1.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.46 pts.
CIN @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.14%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.70 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.70 pts.
CIN @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-230at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
70.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.1%.
Model EV
+0.56%
Break-even
69.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
−1.44 pts
+0.43uSettled at -230 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.44 pts.
CIN @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
69.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.6%.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.92 pts.
CIN @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.45%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -154
CLV vs close
+5.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 · graded from the box score · CLV +5.02 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.84 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -184
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.08total bases
68% range0.0to10.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 2.08
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–10.5 · no game history on this row11
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–10.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.08 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.27%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.98%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -186
CLV vs close
+4.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.79 pts.
COL @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range0.0to17.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.46
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–17.1 · no game history on this row18
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–17.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.96 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.27 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.27 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.96total bases
68% range0.0to12.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.96
0model band 0.0–12.9 · no game history on this row14
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–12.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±11.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+11.16%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
+3.47 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.82total bases
68% range0.0to6.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-110at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.72%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +3.57 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
64.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.1%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+0.89%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -223
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
COL @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.50%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
−3.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.14 pts.
COL @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-243at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
71.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.85 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.5%.
Model EV
+0.98%
Break-even
70.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -243
CLV vs close
−0.70 pts
+0.41uSettled at -243 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.70 pts.
COL @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at —
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row4
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.67 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.
Model EV
+0.17%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row3
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.27hits
68% range0.0to6.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row7
51.4%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.78%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.0to5.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.38
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.88 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.50%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+145at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
41.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.16%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
22¢
Opened
1.5 +145
CLV vs close
−1.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.45 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.90total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
41.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.63%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
−0.68 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.68 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.2%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.1to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.4 · no game history on this row2
66.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.4%.Risk: an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.61%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
−1.00uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.62
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+0.42%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
KC @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.11%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
−1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.40 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.52
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
53.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+2.92%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -144
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
KC @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-220at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
69.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.2%.
Model EV
+0.63%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
KC @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 1.5?
Solid lean to the under 1.5-265at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
72.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.61 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 72.7%.
Model EV
+0.11%
Break-even
72.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -265
CLV vs close
−39.27 pts
+0.38uSettled at -265 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −39.27 pts.
KC @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.82 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+0.55%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.65 pts.
KC @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.5%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.30%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
SD @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.08
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.0%.
Model EV
+0.81%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
SD @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.0to4.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.83
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.15%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
−0.34 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.34 pts.
SD @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.21total bases
68% range0.0to9.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.5 · no game history on this row10
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–9.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
−1.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.71 pts.
SD @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
SD @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.24%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+5.62 pts
+0.61uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.62 pts.
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