75 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Jul 25 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SEA @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+4.42%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
−1.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.53 pts.
CIN @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.7%.
Model EV
+1.74%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -198
CLV vs close
+1.15 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.15 pts.
CIN @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at Hard Rock Bet
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.2%.Risk: an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+2.35%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
CIN @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 99¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+0.28%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
99¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -166 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.83
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.32%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
+1.36uSettled at +136 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
CIN @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+7.82 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02total bases
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.45%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−4.34 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −4.34 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.21%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.07 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.07 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
1 -140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.39
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.89 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.92%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
1 -150
CLV vs close
−0.16 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.16 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
1 -135
CLV vs close
+2.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.01 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-220at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+0.04%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
−4.21 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −4.21 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.13%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.71
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.96%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
COL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.1%.
Model EV
+1.87%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
60.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.62%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.16 pts.
COL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.05%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
COL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 69.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.20%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+5.56 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV +5.56 pts.
COL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at BetOnline
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.33
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.83 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.02%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.45 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.45 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.35%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.96total bases
68% range0.0to10.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.96
0model band 0.0–10.3 · no game history on this row11
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–10.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.77%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+2.51 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+6.55%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -225
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.01%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+100at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.90%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.73total bases
68% range0.0to6.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.73
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.73 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.80%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−20.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −20.00 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
53.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.77%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−0.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.46 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+1.64%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.57%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.5to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.5–3.4 · no game history on this row4
38.8%
Our chance?
0.5–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.88%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
1.5 +138
CLV vs close
−0.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.29 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.27hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.11total bases
68% range0.0to19.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–19.5 · no game history on this row21
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–19.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±17.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.06%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.22total bases
68% range0.7to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+105at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.22
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.7–3.7 · no game history on this row4
50.5%
Our chance?
0.7–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 68.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -113
CLV vs close
+1.47 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.47 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.37total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.37
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.37 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.45%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
1 -180
CLV vs close
−22.58 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 · graded from the box score · CLV −22.58 pts.
CHC @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.45%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.18 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.2%.Risk: an exchange is asking 98¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+1.01%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
98¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.30%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
+0.61uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.58 pts.
CHC @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.90total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+139at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.90
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
42.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.14%
Break-even
41.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
31¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +139 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.02 pts.
CHC @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range1.0to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.7%
Our chance?
1.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.25%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
CLE @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.08total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.24%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
CLE @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.0to23.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.03
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–23.2 · no game history on this row25
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–23.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±21.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.35%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
CLE @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+1.77%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.59%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
CLE @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.44
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.94 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.01%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
−22.26 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −22.26 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.47total bases
68% range0.0to26.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.47
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–26.6 · no game history on this row29
48.4%
Our chance?
0.0–26.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.97 to the over side, inside a band of ±24.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.64%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.83
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.36%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
1.5 +105
CLV vs close
+0.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +0.42 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-145at Fliff
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row2
59.8%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.02%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+0.69uSettled at -145 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Fliff
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.4%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.68%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
NYY @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row4
61.8%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.49%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.