75 tracked MLB positions Friday · Jul 24 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAA @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.5%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+1.36%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
76¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
LAA @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.42%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
42.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.13%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+0.36 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+135at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.89
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.38%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.72total bases
68% range0.0to6.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.72
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.72 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.65%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
CIN @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.68total bases
68% range0.0to5.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.68
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.68 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.94%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
CIN @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.
Model EV
+2.06%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -235
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
CIN @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-101at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.96%
Break-even
50.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -101
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -101 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
CIN @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.0%.
Model EV
+2.23%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -217
CLV vs close
−27.64 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV −27.64 pts.
CIN @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.12%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.58%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +154
CLV vs close
−3.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +143 · graded from the box score · CLV −3.42 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.14%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.08%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.92total bases
68% range0.0to7.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.92
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.92%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
ATH @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.1to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+141at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.89
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–3.7 · no game history on this row4
41.5%
Our chance?
0.1–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.14%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +134
CLV vs close
+1.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.42 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.09hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.09
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.28%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+6.99 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +6.99 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-172at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+4.77%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.58uSettled at -172 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.3%.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.20 pts
+0.54uSettled at -184 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.20 pts.
SEA @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.8to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+158at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.76
0model band 0.8–2.7 · no game history on this row3
38.9%
Our chance?
0.8–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.44%
Break-even
38.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +146
CLV vs close
+2.22 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.68total bases
68% range0.0to5.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.68
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.68 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.86%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
−19.52 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −19.52 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.96total bases
68% range0.0to15.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-110at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.96
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–15.5 · no game history on this row17
54.6%
Our chance?
0.0–15.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±12.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+7.46 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +7.46 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.65total bases
68% range0.0to6.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.65
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.98%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
−17.52 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −17.52 pts.
HOU @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-172at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
65.5%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 65.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 65.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -172
CLV vs close
−1.70 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.42total bases
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetOnline
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.42
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.92 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.59%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−24.39 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV −24.39 pts.
TOR @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+126at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.29%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+1.26uSettled at +126 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
TOR @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.27total bases
68% range0.0to7.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+134at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.27
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.6 · no game history on this row8
44.2%
Our chance?
0.0–7.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
42.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.51 pts
−1.00uSettled at +134 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +1.51 pts.
TOR @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-233at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
70.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.4%.
Model EV
+0.57%
Break-even
70.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -260
CLV vs close
+0.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -233 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.18 pts.
TOR @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-159at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row7
61.7%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.42%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
−1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -159 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.39 pts.
TOR @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.53total bases
68% range0.8to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+117at Caesars
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.53
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.3 · no game history on this row3
48.5%
Our chance?
0.8–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.53 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.16%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +1.09 pts.
CLE @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
0.5 -124
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
CLE @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.16total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+161at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.16
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
38.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.45%
Break-even
38.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+1.61uSettled at +161 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
CLE @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to15.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–15.3 · no game history on this row16
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–15.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±14.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
−2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV −2.38 pts.
CLE @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to15.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
0model band 0.0–15.1 · no game history on this row16
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–15.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±14.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.90%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.97%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+1.61 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to8.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–8.5 · no game history on this row9
51.3%
Our chance?
0.0–8.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -212
CLV vs close
+0.14 pts
+0.61uSettled at -164 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.14 pts.
SD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.20total bases
68% range0.7to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+113at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.20
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.7–3.7 · no game history on this row4
50.1%
Our chance?
0.7–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 68.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.82%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
CLE @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Hard Rock Bet
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.33
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.83 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.53%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
−1.40 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.40 pts.
SD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.74total bases
68% range0.4to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.4–3.1 · no game history on this row3
42.7%
Our chance?
0.4–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.74 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.87%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+3.08 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +3.08 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at BetMGM
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+1.40%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1 -195
CLV vs close
+3.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.90 pts.
SD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.1to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
67.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.4%.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -226
CLV vs close
+5.73 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 · graded from the box score · CLV +5.73 pts.
SD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+1.84%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+1.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at -184 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.88 pts.
SD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.15total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.15
✓ actual 6
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row7
42.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.35%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
+1.68 pts
+1.36uSettled at +136 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.68 pts.
LAD @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetOnline
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row4
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.02%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
−23.64 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV −23.64 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.60
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.31%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.17total bases
68% range0.0to7.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.17
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–7.1 · no game history on this row8
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.60%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.37 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.37 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.98total bases
68% range0.0to5.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+141at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.98
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
45.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.40%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.84 pts
+1.41uSettled at +141 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.84 pts.
ATL @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.45%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
−2.16 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 · graded from the box score · CLV −2.16 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.