25 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Jul 23 · 25 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
KC @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64total bases
68% range0.0to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.86 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.47%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
79¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
−0.70 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.70 pts.
KC @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.08total bases
68% range0.0to7.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.08
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.08 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.39%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.41 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.41 pts.
KC @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-128at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.13%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.31 pts
+0.78uSettled at -128 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.31 pts.
KC @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.11%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Hard Rock Bet
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
1¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
−26.57 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −26.57 pts.
ARI @ STL · 5:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
41.8%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.30%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−0.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.17 pts.
ARI @ STL · 5:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.0to6.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+116at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.6 · no game history on this row7
46.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.04%
Break-even
46.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
−0.84 pts
+1.16uSettled at +116 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.84 pts.
ARI @ STL · 5:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.65total bases
68% range1.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+148at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.65
✓ actual 4
0model band 1.0–2.3 · no game history on this row4
40.5%
Our chance?
1.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.65 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.46%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
ARI @ STL · 5:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.2%.
Model EV
+0.80%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−1.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.88 pts.
ARI @ STL · 5:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.9%.
Model EV
+1.91%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−1.15 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.15 pts.
TB @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
53.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.06%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−3.36 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.36 pts.
TB @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.77%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
TB @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-114at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.99 pts.
TB @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-147at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row2
60.5%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.66%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
TB @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.2to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.08
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.9 · no game history on this row2
68.8%
Our chance?
0.2–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.8%.
Model EV
+0.06%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -315
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.38%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
−0.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at -145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.17 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.16total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.16
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.88%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.93total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+133at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.93
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
43.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.21%
Break-even
42.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
−0.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at +133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.37 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.43
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.93 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.83%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 1:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to18.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-103at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–18.3 · no game history on this row20
51.0%
Our chance?
0.0–18.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±17.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.53%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -103 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.72 pts.
SD @ ATL · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range1.3to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+190at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 1.3–2.0 · no game history on this row2
35.6%
Our chance?
1.3–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 35.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 35.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
1.5 +190
CLV vs close
+4.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at +190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.73 pts.
SD @ ATL · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.20total bases
68% range0.7to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+114at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.20
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.7–3.7 · no game history on this row5
50.1%
Our chance?
0.7–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 68.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.13%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
+3.27 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.27 pts.
SD @ ATL · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.68%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+3.25 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.25 pts.
SD @ ATL · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
67.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.3%.
Model EV
+2.75%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+1.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.48 pts.
SD @ ATL · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.87%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at -145 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +2.35 pts.