75 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Jul 22 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.87total bases
68% range0.0to24.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+100at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.87
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–24.7 · no game history on this row27
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–24.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.87 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±21.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.40total bases
68% range0.0to10.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–10.6 · no game history on this row11
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–10.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.90 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.71%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.02total bases
68% range0.0to5.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.02
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.74total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.74
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.21%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−22.58 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −22.58 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range1.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+175at Hard Rock Bet
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
✗ actual 0
0model band 1.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
37.2%
Our chance?
1.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 37.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 96¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.33%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
96¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+0.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +175 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.67 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.55
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.05 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+7.92%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−22.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −22.65 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.12total bases
68% range0.0to5.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.12
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
41.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.27%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
46.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.64%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
−2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −2.07 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.92total bases
68% range0.0to9.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at Caesars
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.6 · no game history on this row10
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–9.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.79%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 +112
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.30total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.30
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.34%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at Bovada
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.47
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
61.2%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.62%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.48 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +1.48 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.31hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-220at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.31
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
69.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.81 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.5%.
Model EV
+1.13%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -272
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -220 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.61
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
58.1%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -147
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.59
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.93%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.1to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+158at —
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.03
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.1–4.0 · no game history on this row4
39.3%
Our chance?
0.1–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 39.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.32%
Break-even
38.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
1 +146
CLV vs close
+2.22 pts
+1.58uSettled at +158 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.22 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to11.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–11.2 · no game history on this row12
51.0%
Our chance?
0.0–11.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±11.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.20%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.36%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.41total bases
68% range0.0to11.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.41
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–11.1 · no game history on this row12
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–11.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.87%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to6.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.35%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.27total bases
68% range0.0to6.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+135at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.27
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.50%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
+1.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.31 pts.
TB @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.13total bases
68% range0.0to9.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.13
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–9.7 · no game history on this row10
46.7%
Our chance?
0.0–9.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.38%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
1.5 +105
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
TB @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
61.5%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.21%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
TB @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
45.7%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.63%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +106
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
TB @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.62total bases
68% range0.6to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.62
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.6–2.7 · no game history on this row3
45.5%
Our chance?
0.6–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.62 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.10%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
−3.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV −3.44 pts.
TB @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.38%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−1.70 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.70 pts.
PIT @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.38hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-188at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.38
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
69.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.88 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.9%.
Model EV
+7.14%
Break-even
65.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
+0.53uSettled at -188 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
PIT @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.80%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
PIT @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.69%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PIT @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-168at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.87%
Break-even
62.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
+1.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -168 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.47 pts.
PIT @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.35%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -115
+0.80uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
MIN @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-188at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+2.01%
Break-even
65.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+5.22 pts
+0.53uSettled at -188 · graded from the box score · CLV +5.22 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-168at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+5.30%
Break-even
62.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at -168 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.34 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.02total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.02
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.15%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
1.5 +139
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to6.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.6 · no game history on this row7
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.38%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
MIN @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.44
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.94 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.07%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
1 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.09total bases
68% range0.0to25.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+105at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.09
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–25.9 · no game history on this row28
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–25.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±23.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.47%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.74%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -142
CLV vs close
+2.86 pts
+0.70uSettled at -142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.86 pts.
LAD @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.70
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
46.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.64%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.60
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row2
57.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.12%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
LAD @ PHI · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.48total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.48
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.98 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.36%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
−21.97 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −21.97 pts.
STL @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+142at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.21%
Break-even
41.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.12 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.42%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+0.66 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.66 pts.
STL @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.08
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.12%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
STL @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-164at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.03%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−18.64 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-222at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
69.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.3%.
Model EV
+0.52%
Break-even
68.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -300
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -222 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 3:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.54total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.54
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.54 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.04 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.00%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−15.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −15.36 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 3:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.21total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+144at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
41.3%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.80%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
1.5 +145
CLV vs close
+3.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at +144 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +3.46 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 3:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
61.0%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.34%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
−2.98 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV −2.98 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 3:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+0.36%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
−19.84 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −19.84 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 3:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.0%.
Model EV
+0.75%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
−26.30 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −26.30 pts.
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