75 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Jul 21 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.09hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-132at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.09
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.09%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+5.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
−0.95 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.30%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -102
CLV vs close
+1.43 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to12.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–12.3 · no game history on this row13
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–12.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±11.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.20%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.90%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
+2.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.10 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.04%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to9.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+111at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.60%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.72total bases
68% range0.4to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.72
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.4–3.0 · no game history on this row3
49.6%
Our chance?
0.4–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.72 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.58total bases
68% range0.0to6.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.58
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.58 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.08 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.87%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1 -140
CLV vs close
−20.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 · graded from the box score · CLV −20.45 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+1.72%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -270
CLV vs close
−0.13 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.13 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.26total bases
68% range0.5to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.26
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.5–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.5–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.78%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
STL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.95total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+134at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.95
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
42.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.95 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.15%
Break-even
42.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at +134 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.71 pts.
STL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Fliff
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.17%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
59.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.38%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.70 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
STL @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to6.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
51.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.98%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.89%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
−0.17 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.17 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.69total bases
68% range0.0to8.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.69
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–8.3 · no game history on this row9
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–8.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.19 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
−8.90 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −8.90 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.71%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
−1.98 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.98 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.17total bases
68% range0.0to5.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-132at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.17
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.83%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
+0.76uSettled at -132 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-213at Fliff
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.83 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.6%.
Model EV
+2.31%
Break-even
68.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -213
CLV vs close
+1.18 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
3.0total bases
68% range0.0to16.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-115at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 3.0
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–16.7 · no game history on this row18
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–16.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±13.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.80%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.83total bases
68% range0.8to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+182at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.8 · no game history on this row3
37.0%
Our chance?
0.8–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.83 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 37.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.42%
Break-even
35.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
+3.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +182 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +3.75 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range1.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+178at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
0model band 1.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
36.1%
Our chance?
1.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 36.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 36.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.25%
Break-even
36.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.55 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.55
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.05 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.55%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
1 -140
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.41total bases
68% range0.0to8.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.41
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.0 · no game history on this row9
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–8.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.75%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+2.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.67 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.92total bases
68% range0.6to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+166at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.92
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.6–3.3 · no game history on this row4
37.7%
Our chance?
0.6–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 37.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.34%
Break-even
37.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +141
CLV vs close
−3.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +166 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −3.70 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.33%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -126
CLV vs close
+3.57 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.57 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-154at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+6.33%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -197
CLV vs close
+5.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -154 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +5.36 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.9%.
Model EV
+0.30%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -259
CLV vs close
−3.70 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −3.70 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 66.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.08%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−2.83 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −2.83 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ReBet
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.
Model EV
+2.06%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−14.29 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ReBet · graded from the box score · CLV −14.29 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.80total bases
68% range0.3to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at Fliff
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.80
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–3.3 · no game history on this row4
41.9%
Our chance?
0.3–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.80 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.49%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.25 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.48total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.48
✗ actual 7
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row8
57.7%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.08%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.38total bases
68% range0.0to9.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.38
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–9.7 · no game history on this row10
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–9.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.88 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.72%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
61.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.95%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.59 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.59 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.95total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.95 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.01%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
−1.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.18 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.73total bases
68% range0.3to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.3–3.2 · no game history on this row3
43.6%
Our chance?
0.3–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.33%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row5
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.35%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.74total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.74 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.
Model EV
+1.22%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
−0.27 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV −0.27 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-142at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.58%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+0.70uSettled at -142 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.1to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-225at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.04
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.9 · no game history on this row2
69.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.7%.
Model EV
+0.62%
Break-even
69.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
+0.44uSettled at -225 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.04total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+144at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.04
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
41.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.04 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.38%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +144 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.93 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.5to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.5–2.0 · no game history on this row2
63.3%
Our chance?
0.5–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.50%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.14 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.54total bases
68% range0.0to7.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.54
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.1 · no game history on this row8
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.54 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.04 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.64%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range1.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+182at Fanatics Sportsbook
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
✗ actual 0
0model band 1.3–1.9 · no game history on this row2
35.7%
Our chance?
1.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 35.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 35.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.76%
Break-even
35.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+7.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +182 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +7.09 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.69total bases
68% range0.9to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+148at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.69
✓ actual 8
0model band 0.9–2.5 · no game history on this row9
40.8%
Our chance?
0.9–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.31%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +148
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.23total bases
68% range0.0to7.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+126at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.23
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.5 · no game history on this row8
44.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.52%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +126
CLV vs close
+0.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at +126 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.80 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.37total bases
68% range0.0to33.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+114at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.37
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–33.9 · no game history on this row36
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–33.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.37 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±31.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.35%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
+3.27 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +3.27 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.7%.
Model EV
+0.25%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -197
CLV vs close
−22.04 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV −22.04 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.