75 tracked MLB positions Monday · Jul 20 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
STL @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
42.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.28%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−0.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −0.71 pts.
STL @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.00total bases
68% range0.0to5.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+126at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.13%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+0.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at +126 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.20 pts.
STL @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.13total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+140at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.13
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
STL @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.57%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1 -150
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
STL @ LAA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.33%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
1 -156
CLV vs close
−0.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at -145 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.34 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.5%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.5%.
Model EV
+0.03%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-109at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
53.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.18%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -109 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.13total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+128at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.13
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.91%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.38 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.60%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row4
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.04%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
54.3%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.59%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−2.27 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Fliff
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.60%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+5.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at Fliff · graded from the box score · CLV +5.07 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.31total bases
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.08%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −2.38 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.72%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−20.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −20.00 pts.
ATH @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at BetMGM
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.2%.
Model EV
+2.47%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1 -165
CLV vs close
−20.16 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −20.16 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row4
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.61%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
−10.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −10.36 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+109at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.7 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 70.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−6.18 pts
+1.09uSettled at +109 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −6.18 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-145at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -177
CLV vs close
+4.45 pts
+0.69uSettled at -145 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.45 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.3to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.3–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
+2.52 pts
+0.69uSettled at -144 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.52 pts.
WSH @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-137at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row7
59.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.15%
Break-even
57.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -191
CLV vs close
−2.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at -137 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −2.25 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.95%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:35PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.87
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row4
67.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.3%.
Model EV
+0.89%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -225
CLV vs close
−33.33 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −33.33 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.05%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.96total bases
68% range0.5to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+167at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.96
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.5–3.4 · no game history on this row4
37.9%
Our chance?
0.5–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 37.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.11%
Break-even
37.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+5.47 pts
+1.67uSettled at +167 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +5.47 pts.
DET @ CHC · 8:35PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.06total bases
68% range0.0to7.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.06
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–7.3 · no game history on this row8
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–7.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.87%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.41total bases
68% range0.0to7.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+134at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.41
0model band 0.0–7.8 · no game history on this row8
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–7.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.18%
Break-even
42.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +141
CLV vs close
+2.31 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.
Model EV
+0.31%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -207
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -133
CLV vs close
−2.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −2.27 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.0to11.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-112at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–11.1 · no game history on this row12
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–11.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+3.69 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.69 pts.
MIA @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.02total bases
68% range0.0to7.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 2.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.8 · no game history on this row8
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–7.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.02 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.55%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−18.51 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −18.51 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.63total bases
68% range0.0to12.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+126at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–12.4 · no game history on this row13
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–12.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.58%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at +126 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.77 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.59total bases
68% range0.0to10.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.59
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–10.4 · no game history on this row11
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–10.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.71%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range0.0to6.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.41
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.7 · no game history on this row7
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.40%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+1.34 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.34 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17total bases
68% range0.1to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.1–2.2 · no game history on this row4
62.5%
Our chance?
0.1–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.44%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
CWS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.62total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.62
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
65.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.62 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.2%.
Model EV
+1.41%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−27.92 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −27.92 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.52total bases
68% range0.0to12.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.52
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–12.4 · no game history on this row13
53.7%
Our chance?
0.0–12.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.52 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.02 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.45%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.84 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +2.84 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.39%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.74total bases
68% range0.0to8.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.0 · no game history on this row9
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–8.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.42%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.04total bases
68% range0.0to13.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.04
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–13.7 · no game history on this row15
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–13.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.04 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±11.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.14%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.7%.
Model EV
+0.10%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.04total bases
68% range0.0to5.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+132at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.04
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.04 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.11%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +122
CLV vs close
−1.09 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.09 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.5to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.7%
Our chance?
0.5–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.7%.
Model EV
+0.02%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -228
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
SF @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.75total bases
68% range0.4to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+105at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.75
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.4–3.1 · no game history on this row3
50.2%
Our chance?
0.4–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.75 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.95%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -103
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range0.0to10.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Fliff
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.55
0model band 0.0–10.5 · no game history on this row11
54.7%
Our chance?
0.0–10.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.05 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.21%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYM @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.77total bases
68% range0.0to30.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-103at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.77
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–30.7 · no game history on this row33
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–30.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.77 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±28.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.99%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
1 -103
CLV vs close
+5.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -103 · graded from the box score · CLV +5.78 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.24total bases
68% range0.0to17.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+112at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.24
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–17.6 · no game history on this row19
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–17.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.93%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
−1.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +112 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.09 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.19%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.00total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+146at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.00
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
41.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.88%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.40 pts
+1.46uSettled at +146 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.40 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.24total bases
68% range0.0to12.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+117at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.24
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–12.4 · no game history on this row13
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–12.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.21%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +111
CLV vs close
−1.04 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.04 pts.
SD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.07total bases
68% range0.6to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+102at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.6–3.5 · no game history on this row4
50.1%
Our chance?
0.6–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 65.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.24%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -114
CLV vs close
−3.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −3.63 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.