75 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Jul 19 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAD @ NYY · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.28%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−1.49 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.49 pts.
SF @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.01%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -212
CLV vs close
−3.21 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −3.21 pts.
SF @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.15total bases
68% range0.0to4.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+152at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.15
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
39.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.02%
Break-even
39.7%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +138
CLV vs close
−3.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at +152 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −3.19 pts.
SF @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.64
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.63%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
−3.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −3.60 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range0.9to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.61
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.9–2.3 · no game history on this row3
43.5%
Our chance?
0.9–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.07%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.38 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+134at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.01%
Break-even
42.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−1.92 pts
+1.34uSettled at +134 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.92 pts.
SF @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
57.5%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.13%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+1.74 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.74 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.73total bases
68% range1.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+170at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.73
✓ actual 4
0model band 1.0–2.5 · no game history on this row4
37.8%
Our chance?
1.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 37.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.92%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
1.5 +144
CLV vs close
−1.07 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.07 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
60.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row5
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+1.55%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−22.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −22.62 pts.
SF @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.81total bases
68% range1.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+190at —
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.81
✓ actual 5
0model band 1.0–2.7 · no game history on this row5
35.8%
Our chance?
1.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.81 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 35.8%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 35.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1 +190
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+1.90uSettled at +190 · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
DET @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.79total bases
68% range0.1to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+141at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.79
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–3.4 · no game history on this row4
43.0%
Our chance?
0.1–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.79 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +141
CLV vs close
+3.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.55 pts.
DET @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.1to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.3 · no game history on this row2
64.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.8%.
Model EV
+0.88%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −3.05 pts.
DET @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.98total bases
68% range0.0to23.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+104at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.98
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–23.5 · no game history on this row25
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–23.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±21.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.18%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -101
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
DET @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at —
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.
Model EV
+2.53%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1 -192
CLV vs close
−3.93 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 · graded from the box score · CLV −3.93 pts.
DET @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-118at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1 -118
CLV vs close
−0.86 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.86 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.83 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.2%.
Model EV
+0.71%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -241
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.19total bases
68% range0.7to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+100at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.19
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.7–3.7 · no game history on this row4
50.1%
Our chance?
0.7–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 67.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.14%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -107
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.16%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
−0.73 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.73 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.12 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.12 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
CIN @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.1to3.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–3.6 · no game history on this row4
41.5%
Our chance?
0.1–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.38%
Break-even
41.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at +142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.69 pts.
CIN @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.48%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
−0.87 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV −0.87 pts.
CIN @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-195at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.61 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.4%.
Model EV
+0.45%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −0.58 pts.
CIN @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.38total bases
68% range0.0to7.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-128at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.8 · no game history on this row8
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–7.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.88 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.46%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at -128 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.88 pts.
CIN @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at —
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.2%.
Model EV
+2.93%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 · graded from the box score · CLV −0.65 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.02total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+155at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.02
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
40.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.94%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.28 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 · graded from the box score · CLV +2.28 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.20total bases
68% range0.0to8.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 2.20
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.4 · no game history on this row9
60.7%
Our chance?
0.0–8.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.20 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.45%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.96total bases
68% range0.0to8.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.96 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.61%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.09total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+152at BetOnline
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.09
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
40.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.43%
Break-even
39.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at +152 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +3.80 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range0.0to6.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.39
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.6 · no game history on this row7
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.89 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.47%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.56total bases
68% range0.0to17.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-106at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.56
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–17.9 · no game history on this row19
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–17.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.56 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.51%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +107
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.9to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+166at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.76
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.9–2.6 · no game history on this row3
38.1%
Our chance?
0.9–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.45%
Break-even
37.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +150
CLV vs close
+2.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +166 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.09 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.35%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.48 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range1.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+164at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.61
✗ actual 0
0model band 1.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
38.1%
Our chance?
1.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.50%
Break-even
37.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at +164 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +2.28 pts.
SD @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.15hits
68% range0.0to8.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
−0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.72 pts.
SD @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-208at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row4
69.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.1%.
Model EV
+2.26%
Break-even
67.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at -208 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
SD @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.12total bases
68% range0.0to6.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+128at Caesars
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.12
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row7
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.21%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
SD @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.3to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.0%
Our chance?
0.3–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.0%.
Model EV
+0.55%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -225
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.26total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.38%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
−22.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −22.99 pts.
SD @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-120at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.71
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
54.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.36%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.98%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.41total bases
68% range0.0to10.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+126at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.41
0model band 0.0–10.8 · no game history on this row12
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–10.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +126
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.59total bases
68% range0.0to11.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.59
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–11.7 · no game history on this row13
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–11.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.54%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-101at BetOnline
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.54%
Break-even
50.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
−0.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at -101 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV −0.74 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.93total bases
68% range0.0to4.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+130at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.93
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.10%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
PIT @ CLE · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.59total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.59
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.83%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
PIT @ CLE · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.7to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+167at BetOnline
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.7–3.1 · no game history on this row3
37.5%
Our chance?
0.7–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 37.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.15%
Break-even
37.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +147
CLV vs close
+0.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at +167 at BetOnline · graded from the box score · CLV +0.43 pts.
PIT @ CLE · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to7.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–7.2 · no game history on this row8
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.32%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
PIT @ CLE · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.52%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.75 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.