75 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Jul 18 · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
DET @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.30total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.30
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.54%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.10 pts.
DET @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.24
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.30%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1 -194
−1.00uSettled at -165 · graded from the box score.
DET @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.97total bases
68% range0.0to7.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at —
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.5 · no game history on this row8
60.4%
Our chance?
0.0–7.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.97 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.70%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1 -162
CLV vs close
−23.64 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 · graded from the box score · CLV −23.64 pts.
DET @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range0.0to7.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.41
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.0 · no game history on this row8
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.68%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
−2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.07 pts.
DET @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.58total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.58
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.72%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
WSH @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row7
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.00%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -141
CLV vs close
+0.68 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +0.68 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
69.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.2%.
Model EV
+0.60%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.
Model EV
+0.74%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -217
CLV vs close
−31.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −31.70 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range1.1to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✗ actual 5
0model band 1.1–1.9 · no game history on this row5
54.0%
Our chance?
1.1–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.03%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.59total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at Bovada
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.59
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row5
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.59 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.82%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.53 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +4.53 pts.
SF @ SEA · 8:09PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.96total bases
68% range0.1to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+150at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.96
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.1–3.8 · no game history on this row4
40.1%
Our chance?
0.1–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.13%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
LAD @ NYY · 8:09PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.53total bases
68% range0.0to12.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.53
0model band 0.0–12.6 · no game history on this row14
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–12.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.53 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.03 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.02%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +105
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SF @ SEA · 8:09PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.0to6.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.71
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.6 · no game history on this row7
59.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.17%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
−19.42 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −19.42 pts.
SF @ SEA · 8:09PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.01%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
SF @ SEA · 8:09PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.79total bases
68% range0.0to5.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+2.39%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +144
CLV vs close
−25.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −25.90 pts.
SF @ SEA · 8:09PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.69
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.20%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
−1.00uSettled at +113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
LAD @ NYY · 8:09PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.17%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.85 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ NYY · 8:09PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range0.0to6.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.39
0model band 0.0–6.2 · no game history on this row7
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.89 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.36%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
−0.19 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ NYY · 8:09PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.17total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.04%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ NYY · 8:09PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.49
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.46%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
−21.26 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ BOS · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
59.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.81%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+4.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +4.24 pts.
TB @ BOS · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.18total bases
68% range0.0to15.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.18
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–15.3 · no game history on this row16
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–15.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.18 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±13.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.65%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
TB @ BOS · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.33
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.83 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.48%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
TB @ BOS · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.4%.
Model EV
+1.23%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
−1.37 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.37 pts.
TB @ BOS · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at ReBet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.42%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at ReBet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.23 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.86%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.33
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.83 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.67%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.28 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.0to9.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.6 · no game history on this row10
53.5%
Our chance?
0.0–9.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.39%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
−13.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −13.20 pts.
TEX @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.91%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ HOU · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.78total bases
68% range0.9to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+166at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.9–2.7 · no game history on this row3
38.1%
Our chance?
0.9–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.40%
Break-even
37.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +166
CLV vs close
+0.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at +166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.43 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.48total bases
68% range0.0to21.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+110at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.48
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–21.6 · no game history on this row23
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–21.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.48 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.98 to the over side, inside a band of ±19.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.72%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +106
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.62
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.84total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
61.4%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.92%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+1.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +1.74 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.02total bases
68% range0.0to7.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 2.02
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–7.0 · no game history on this row8
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–7.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.02 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.78%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+2.21 pts
+0.69uSettled at -145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV +2.21 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.8%.
Model EV
+0.45%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -228
CLV vs close
+1.15 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.15 pts.
TEX @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.69total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.69
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.16%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
TEX @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.75%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
−2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.78 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.64total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at DraftKings
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.64
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
64.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.64 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.1%.
Model EV
+0.74%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +141
CLV vs close
−22.82 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −22.82 pts.
TEX @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18total bases
68% range0.1to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.18
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.1–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.96%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH) · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.05total bases
68% range0.0to8.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+115at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.05
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–8.4 · no game history on this row9
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–8.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.05 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.08%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-210at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.7%.
Model EV
+2.88%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
−1.08 pts
+0.48uSettled at -210 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.08 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.0%.
Model EV
+0.78%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -197
CLV vs close
−20.87 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-159at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.51%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -169
CLV vs close
+3.52 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.52 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.30total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-124at ReBet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.30
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.65%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at -124 at ReBet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.98 pts.
SD @ KC · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.24%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.57 pts.
SD @ KC · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.18total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.18
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.07%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
STL @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.5%.
Model EV
+1.44%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -200
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ KC · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.69%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+3.60 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.60 pts.
SD @ KC · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-235at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.93
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
70.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.57 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.3%.
Model EV
+0.19%
Break-even
70.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.43uSettled at -235 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ KC · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
42.1%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.16%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.