70 tracked MLB positions Friday · Jul 17 · 70 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SF @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.12total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+157at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.12
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
41.3%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.22%
Break-even
38.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +158
CLV vs close
+22.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at +157 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +22.48 pts.
SF @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.97total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+160at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.97
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
40.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.97 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.35%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +157
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
SF @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.75total bases
68% range0.7to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+152at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.75
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.7–2.8 · no game history on this row3
40.9%
Our chance?
0.7–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.75 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
39.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +151
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
+1.52uSettled at +152 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
SF @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at Dabble
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
+2.09 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.09 pts.
SF @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95total bases
68% range0.0to17.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+111at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–17.0 · no game history on this row18
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–17.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±16.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.14%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
+6.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +6.10 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.91total bases
68% range0.0to27.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+103at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.91
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–27.2 · no game history on this row29
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–27.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±24.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.19%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +103
CLV vs close
+4.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +103 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.23 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at Dabble
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row6
51.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.10%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−3.33 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −3.33 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.09total bases
68% range0.0to9.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+123at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.09
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
1.5 +123
CLV vs close
+4.66 pts
+1.23uSettled at +123 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.66 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-127at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.95%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
1.5 -127
CLV vs close
+2.04 pts
+0.79uSettled at -127 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.04 pts.
WSH @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.68total bases
68% range0.8to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+145at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.68
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.8–2.6 · no game history on this row3
41.9%
Our chance?
0.8–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.68 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.56%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Opened
1.5 +145
CLV vs close
+4.03 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.03 pts.
STL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-112at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.39%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -122
CLV vs close
+2.73 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.73 pts.
STL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.06total bases
68% range0.6to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+106at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.06
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.6–3.5 · no game history on this row4
49.9%
Our chance?
0.6–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 49.9%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 65.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.77%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +106
CLV vs close
−0.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +106 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −0.47 pts.
STL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.94total bases
68% range0.0to8.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+117at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.94
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–8.5 · no game history on this row9
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–8.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.73%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +117
CLV vs close
+2.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.70 pts.
STL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.42total bases
68% range0.8to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.42
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.8–2.1 · no game history on this row4
55.0%
Our chance?
0.8–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.91%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
STL @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-137at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row3
58.0%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.32%
Break-even
57.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+3.13 pts
−1.00uSettled at -137 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +3.13 pts.
DET @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Dabble
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
DET @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+135at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.89
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
−0.54 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −0.54 pts.
DET @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-137at Dabble
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.64%
Break-even
57.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -137
CLV vs close
−0.91 pts
+0.73uSettled at -137 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −0.91 pts.
DET @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.52total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+139at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
42.1%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.52 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.74%
Break-even
41.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +139
CLV vs close
+1.08 pts
−1.00uSettled at +139 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +1.08 pts.
DET @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.02%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
+1.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +1.50 pts.
CIN @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.37total bases
68% range0.0to13.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-106at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.37
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–13.0 · no game history on this row14
53.3%
Our chance?
0.0–13.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.37 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -106
CLV vs close
+4.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.88 pts.
CIN @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.24total bases
68% range0.0to11.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-106at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.24
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–11.8 · no game history on this row13
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–11.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.16%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -106
CLV vs close
+5.07 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +5.07 pts.
CIN @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+129at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
45.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.00%
Break-even
43.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +129
CLV vs close
+3.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +129 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +3.06 pts.
CIN @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-149at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.34%
Break-even
59.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -149
CLV vs close
+2.42 pts
+0.67uSettled at -149 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.42 pts.
CIN @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row4
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.27%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -133
CLV vs close
+2.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.92 pts.
SD @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at Dabble
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
43.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.30%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +145
+1.45uSettled at +145 at Dabble · graded from the box score.
SD @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01total bases
68% range0.0to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.99%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
1.5 -133
CLV vs close
+1.93 pts
+0.75uSettled at -133 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +1.93 pts.
SD @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.93total bases
68% range0.0to8.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+117at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.5 · no game history on this row9
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–8.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.86%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
1.5 +117
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +3.92 pts.
SD @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-208at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
69.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.75 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.4%.
Model EV
+2.71%
Break-even
67.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -208
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+0.48uSettled at -208 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
SD @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-149at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.41%
Break-even
59.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -149
CLV vs close
+2.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at -149 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.42 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.36total bases
68% range0.8to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+109at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.36
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.8–3.9 · no game history on this row4
50.0%
Our chance?
0.8–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.86 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.0%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 71.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +109
CLV vs close
+4.53 pts
+1.09uSettled at +109 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.53 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.85total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+142at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.85
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
42.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
41.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +137
CLV vs close
+0.69 pts
+1.42uSettled at +142 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +0.69 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-109at Dabble
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -116
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at -109 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the over 0.5+110at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
50.7%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 73.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.41%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.53 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.53 pts.
BAL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range0.0to12.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-105at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.60
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–12.1 · no game history on this row13
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–12.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.80%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+4.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.34 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.22total bases
68% range0.7to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+111at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.22
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.7–3.7 · no game history on this row4
49.3%
Our chance?
0.7–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 49.3%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 68.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 +111
CLV vs close
+5.44 pts
+1.11uSettled at +111 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +5.44 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.6to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+104at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.03
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.6–3.5 · no game history on this row4
50.2%
Our chance?
0.6–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.49%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +104
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.06total bases
68% range0.0to20.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+100at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.06
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–20.5 · no game history on this row22
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–20.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±18.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.42%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.92total bases
68% range0.0to11.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+112at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.92
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–11.6 · no game history on this row13
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–11.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.33%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
1.5 +112
CLV vs close
+5.21 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +5.21 pts.
MIN @ CHC · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+101at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
50.5%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.44%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Opened
1.5 +101
CLV vs close
+2.63 pts
+1.01uSettled at +101 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.63 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.41total bases
68% range0.0to9.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+139at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.41
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–9.3 · no game history on this row10
44.7%
Our chance?
0.0–9.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.90%
Break-even
41.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
1.5 +139
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+1.39uSettled at +139 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range0.0to24.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.49
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–24.1 · no game history on this row26
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–24.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±22.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.09%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+6.78 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +6.78 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.21total bases
68% range0.0to7.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+137at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.68%
Break-even
42.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +137
CLV vs close
−0.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at +137 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −0.53 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.0to16.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+101at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–16.0 · no game history on this row17
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–16.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±14.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+3.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at +101 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +3.74 pts.
MIA @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97total bases
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+104at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 50.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 68.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.88%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+5.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +5.73 pts.
CWS @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+146at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
42.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 +146
CLV vs close
+4.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at +146 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +4.80 pts.
CWS @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.88total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+141at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.88
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
1.5 +141
CLV vs close
+2.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.95 pts.
CWS @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.58total bases
68% range1.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+154at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.58
✓ actual 5
0model band 1.3–1.9 · no game history on this row5
40.2%
Our chance?
1.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.58 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.18%
Break-even
39.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.9 pts
Opened
1.5 +154
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
+1.54uSettled at +154 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
CWS @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range0.6to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+125at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.63
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.6–2.7 · no game history on this row3
45.0%
Our chance?
0.6–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+1.27%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
1.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
CWS @ TOR · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
59.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.89%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+0.69uSettled at -145 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.