5 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Jul 16 · 5 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
NYM @ PHI · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to9.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+120at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.91
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
NYM @ PHI · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+132at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.76
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1.5 +132
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
NYM @ PHI · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.84total bases
68% range0.0to3.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+139at Dabble
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.84
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
43.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
41.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 +139
CLV vs close
+0.18 pts
+1.39uSettled at +139 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +0.18 pts.
NYM @ PHI · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.08total bases
68% range0.0to9.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-104at Dabble
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.6 · no game history on this row10
52.7%
Our chance?
0.0–9.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
NYM @ PHI · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range1.0to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Bovada
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
1.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Bovada · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.