6 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Jul 12 · 6 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
COL @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.29total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+136at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.29
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
42.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.79 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.23%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
+1.36uSettled at +136 · graded from the box score.
COL @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.05total bases
68% range0.2to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+161at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.2–3.9 · no game history on this row4
38.5%
Our chance?
0.2–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.05 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 38.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.46%
Break-even
38.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
−1.00uSettled at +161 · graded from the box score.
ATH @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
42.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
−1.00uSettled at +144 · graded from the box score.
KC @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+131at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.44%
Break-even
43.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
+1.31uSettled at +131 · graded from the box score.
MIL @ PIT · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
3.0total bases
68% range0.0to14.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+132at —
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 3.0
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–14.3 · no game history on this row15
44.5%
Our chance?
0.0–14.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.04 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±11.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 · graded from the box score.
MIL @ PIT · 12:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+190at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
35.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 35.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 35.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.81%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
+1.90uSettled at +190 · graded from the box score.