NFL prediction tracker — 2026 forward test MEASUREMENT ONLY ?

Units are a measurement at the price we logged, on a flat 1-unit basis. No bet was placed on any of it. A pick can appear in both arms; the two records overlap by design and must not be added together.

Projections are estimates with variance, not facts. StatIQ tracks and grades projections; it never places bets, and this board recommends none. Method and sources: how we do this.

The qualifying gap is frozen at the moment the row cleared the band — inside 10–20% by construction, and it never changes. Line and projection at close are the values the row was graded against; when the market moved after we logged it, the current gap (“now”) can sit outside the band. That drift is the line-move story, not the rule breaking — a pick never un-qualifies. A row logged before we began storing that snapshot predates the open-gap record, so it shows “—” for the qualifying gap rather than a fabricated one — it qualified in-band at the time; we just didn’t record its open gap.

The qualifying gap is frozen at the moment the row cleared the band — inside 10–20% by construction, and it never changes. Line and projection at close are the values the row was graded against; when the market moved after we logged it, the current gap (“now”) can sit outside the band. That drift is the line-move story, not the rule breaking — a pick never un-qualifies. A row logged before we began storing that snapshot predates the open-gap record, so it shows “—” for the qualifying gap rather than a fabricated one — it qualified in-band at the time; we just didn’t record its open gap.