Nathan Lukes — Props & Projections
MLB
Every projection is logged before tip and graded in the open — wins and losses, never deleted. Projections are estimates with variance, not predictions of what will happen.
How our Nathan Lukes projections have graded
Current model · since Jul 28, 2026
3 graded plays on Nathan Lukes under the current model. Too few plays for a hit rate or per-play return to mean anything, so we show the raw record and add the rates once the sample can support them. Prior model: 3-2, -0.20u — kept, unedited. All-time: 6-2, +2.09u. Short-run results are mostly noise, and we make no profit claim. See the full record or how the projections are built.
Current projections vs the line
Our projection against the market’s number, with the calibrated chance to hit and the best price we can find. Estimates, not locks.
Graded history — every era (8: 3 current model, 5 previous)
| Date | Model | Projection | Proj | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11 | Current | OVER 0.5 Hits | 0.71 | 1 | Win | +0.87u |
| Aug 9 | Current | OVER 0.5 Hits | 0.79 | 1 | Win | +0.87u |
| Aug 1 | Current | UNDER 1.5 Total Bases | 1.22 | 0 | Win | +0.55u |
| Jul 25 | Previous | UNDER 1.5 Total Bases | 1.18 | 4 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Jul 22 | Previous | UNDER 1.5 Total Bases | 1.2 | 0 | Win | +0.65u |
| Jul 20 | Previous | UNDER 1.5 Total Bases | 1.27 | 2 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Jul 19 | Previous | OVER 0.5 Total Bases | 1.27 | 2 | Win | +0.55u |
| Jul 18 | Previous | UNDER 1.5 Total Bases | 1.32 | 0 | Win | +0.61u |
Wins and losses shown exactly as they graded. We never delete a losing play. The Model column says which era each row belongs to — the four tiles above count the current one (since Jul 28, 2026), this table counts both.