Nathan Church — Props & Projections
MLB
Every projection is logged before tip and graded in the open — wins and losses, never deleted. Projections are estimates with variance, not predictions of what will happen.
How our Nathan Church projections have graded
Current model · since Jul 28, 2026
3 graded plays on Nathan Church under the current model. Too few plays for a hit rate or per-play return to mean anything, so we show the raw record and add the rates once the sample can support them. Prior model: 0-2, -2.00u — kept, unedited. All-time: 1-4, -3.06u. Short-run results are mostly noise, and we make no profit claim. See the full record or how the projections are built.
Graded history — every era (5: 3 current model, 2 previous)
| Date | Model | Projection | Proj | Actual | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | Current | OVER 0.5 Hits | 0.68 | 1 | Win | +0.94u |
| Jul 31 | Current | UNDER 0.5 Hits | 0.43 | 2 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Jul 28 | Current | UNDER 0.5 Hits | 0.39 | 1 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Jul 23 | Previous | UNDER 0.5 Hits | 0.44 | 1 | Loss | -1.00u |
| Jul 20 | Previous | UNDER 0.5 Hits | 0.48 | 2 | Loss | -1.00u |
Wins and losses shown exactly as they graded. We never delete a losing play. The Model column says which era each row belongs to — the four tiles above count the current one (since Jul 28, 2026), this table counts both.