StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Luis Arraez

Philadelphia Phillies · 2B · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

6/1060% cleared overavg 0.9
09-20@ NYM1
09-19@ NYM2
09-18@ NYM0
09-17@ NYM0
09-16@ WSH1
09-15@ WSH2
09-13@ ATL0
09-12@ ATL0
09-11@ ATL2
09-10vs HOU1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits1.1 we project
Home Runs0.0 we project
RBIs0.5 we project
Total Bases1.4 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits5±1
Total Bases4±0.8

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-13Total Bases1.40+1.4
09-10Total Bases1.41+0.4
09-04Hits1.22−0.8
08-18Hits1.13−1.9
08-17Hits1.11+0.1
07-28Hits1.30+1.3
07-25Total Bases1.62−0.4
07-24Hits1.22−0.8
07-17Total Bases2.01+1.0

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ NYMW 7-2401000200000.313.348.424.772
09-19@ NYML 10-3502000000100.313.349.425.774
09-18@ NYML 6-3400000000000.313.349.425.774
09-17@ NYMW 3-0200000110100.315.351.428.779
09-16@ WSHW 3-0201100130000.316.352.430.781
09-15@ WSHL 6-3302200110000.315.348.428.776
09-13@ ATLW 9-4500000000000.313.345.423.768
09-12@ ATLL 12-2400000000000.316.348.427.775
09-11@ ATLL 6-5 F/11502000100000.318.350.430.780
09-10vs HOUL 2-1311000000000.318.350.430.780
09-09vs HOUW 11-7412100110001.318.350.431.781
09-08vs HOUL 6-5301000001000.316.348.428.776
09-07vs ATLW 1-0300000000100.316.347.429.776
09-06vs ATLL 5-4301000100000.318.349.431.780
09-05vs ATLW 4-2402000100000.318.349.432.781
09-04vs ATLL 5-2412100000000.316.348.431.780
09-02@ ARIL 1-0400000000100.315.347.429.776
09-02@ ARIW 7-1402000010000.317.350.432.782
09-01@ ARIW 2-1401000000000.316.348.432.779
08-30@ LAAW 5-2000000100000.317.348.433.781